Baylor took part in one of the three top-25 matchups of Week 2, and it come out on the losing end of the late-night matchup with BYU. While the altitude could’ve played a factor, starting quarterback Blake Shapen was just 18-for-28, so the Bears offense didn’t do its defense many favors. The Baylor run game went over 150 yards, which was the lone bright spot in the 26-20 defeat.
The Bears have slipped from just inside the top 10 to No. 17 in the AP Poll.
They’ll get what should be an easier matchup in the Texas State Bobcats. They opened their season with a 38-14 loss to Nevada and followed that up with a 41-12 win over FIU, so the team heavily dependent on running back Calvin Hill hasn’t played much competitive football this season.
Kickoff is set for noon ET Saturday, September 17, at McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas.
Texas State vs. Baylor Predictions & Week 3 Picks
The Efficient Bears Attack
The Bears have looked impressive offensively so far this season. Against Albany, they went for 314 yards through the air and another 259 on the ground, an average of 8.4 yards per play. Shapen, a redshirt sophomore, looked like a rising star. The matchup with BYU really showcased where the strengths of this Bears offense lie, and it is in their run game.
They went for 152 rushing yards on a defense that had several key returning linebackers. Baylor killed itself with 117 penalty yards, but its offense, which was 9-for-18 on third down sustained drives well behind the efforts of running backs Craig Williams and Qualan Jones.
Those two were efficient, but it is a strange backfield that has four contributors that seemingly play to the hot hand of the day. They have bigger, strong players like junior starting running back Taye McWilliams and also quicker, shifter players like freshman Richard Reese. All received some snaps in both the 26-20 loss to BYU and 69-10 win over Albany.
This four-man combo may struggle against better defenses, but in projected blowouts, it’s a dream to slide in one weapon for another. Baylor has converted 16 of 29 third downs this season and will have another FCS program on the tab. While its receivers and Shapen leave some to be desired, all three starters and their quarterback and sophomores should only bode well for the program’s long-term success.
What To Expect From Texas State?
The Bobcats were 3-5 in the Sun Belt last season, finishing the year with a 4-8 record. Of 130 programs, they sit 101st in points per game and 108th in opponent’s points per game. They did add four new starters, all either junior or senior transfers.
The most notable is quarterback Layne Hatcher. Hatcher spent three seasons at Arkansas State and looks like a better option than last season’s starter quarterback Brady McBride who has just 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Through two games, Hatcher has 519 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. While Hill is still the star of this team, Hatcher has provided much more stable support to the offense.
Another transfer, defensive lineman Levi Bell from Louisiana Tech leads the team with 4.5 tackles for a loss and 1.5 sacks. Against their only FBS side, Texas State took a 14-7 deficit to the half and then lost any control after being outscored by 24 in the third quarter. Nevada lost to Incarnate Word, a non-major program, this past weekend. That doesn’t bode well for the Bobcats’ resume as Texas State is going to be massive dogs on the road.
Texas State vs. Baylor Pick
The battle in the trenches will be a difference-making battle, and given Baylor rotates four capable running backs all looking to get their share of the touches, the freshness of the Bears attack should make this a long day for the Bobcats defensive line which has struggled through its first few games. Even in a blowout, the Bears will likely keep one of those four backs on the field which will help their offense continue to succeed.
Also, Nevada had 11 tackles for a loss and four sacks against the Texas State offensive line. Baylor has only had four sacks through its two games, so their inability to block could allow a relatively weak Bears line to break through. These two programs have played just once since 2007. This matchup ended 29-20 last season, but the Bears had 162 more yards on the ground and 154 more yards in general along with this being at Texas State. If history repeats itself, expect a Bears blowout win.
Ultimately, this is a bounce-back game for Baylor, and with Nevada having beat Texas State by 24 along with this being in Waco, the Bears should leave with a massive win.
Best NCAAF Bet: Baylor -30.5 (-110) at DraftKings | Playable to -34.5 (-110)
