The UAB Blazers travel north on Friday night to take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.
The Blazers are coming into the game riding a two-game win streak, and have an overall record of 4-2. They took down Charlotte 34-20 last weekend and destroyed Middle Tennessee State 41-14 the week prior. UAB’s two losses this season were to Rice and Liberty, 28-24 and 21-14 respectively. They rank 46th in the nation in points per game and 17th in opponent’s points per game. However, UAB has had one of the softest schedules among all 131 FBS programs. That doesn’t help their case here.
As for Western Kentucky, they enter this matchup with a 4-3 record, also having beaten Middle Tennessee. They lost two games prior to that, the first was a 31-28 defeat at the hands of UTSA. That was followed by a 34-27 loss to Troy to start October. The most notable game for the Hilltoppers was a 33-30 overtime loss at Indiana in the middle of September.
There are several other factors to examine in this key Conference USA matchup.
College Football Odds: UAB vs. Western Kentucky Odds
UAB Looks to Keep Surging
The Blazers haven’t played a strong schedule, and while that is relatively concerning, they have handled their business well.
After taking over as head coach, Bryant Vincent has the Blazers tanked in the top 50 in the FBS in points per game. Defensively, they are also in the top 50 in opponents’ points per game. Accomplishing such a high ranking on both sides of the ball is a feat that few teams can reach.
Their success is due in part to the play of RB DeWayne McBride who returned for his junior season. McBride ran for 1,371 yards and 13 touchdowns a year ago. He’s the key force in this offense, averaging 6.7 yards per carry and totaling 778 yards through 6 games.
McBride’s success has teed up QB Dylan Hopkins to complete 66.7% of his attempts. He has just 6 touchdowns, but with McBride punching it in so often, Hopkins’ lack of redzone production hasn’t been a major concern.
The Hilltoppers allow just 22.7 points per game and have somehow played an even weaker schedule than UAB. Their defense is averaging just over 2 sacks per game, so they do have some issues pressuring the quarterback.
KU is forcing 2.4 turnovers per game which will make the turnover margin a huge factor in this one. Both teams have had success in this category and it could ultimately decide the outcome here.
Western Kentucky’s Key Strength Will Be Tested
Unlike UAB, Western Kentucky’s strength is in the pass game. While it seems UAB opens the pass up with the play of McBride, the Hilltoppers open the run game up with the play of QB Austin Reed, who has 21 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions on the season. He’s also hitting an elite 70.7% of his pass attempts. Reed is thriving in his first year as the starter.
RB Kye Robichaux has dominated for the Hilltoppers on the ground, piling up 458 yards and an impressive 6.7 yards-per-carry average. Robichaux and RB Davion Ervin-Poindexter make up the bulk of the team’s carries. Despite their success, the team’s strength is clearly still the pass. They have thrown for 15.3 first downs a game and runs for just 7.7.
UAB hasn’t done a great job rushing the passer this season either with only 14 sacks in 6 games. It might not get enough pressure on Reed to make him uncomfortable. Their cornerbacks have been great with 9 interceptions in 6 games. S Grayson Cash has been impressive with a team-high 3 picks to go along with 2 tackles for a loss and a sack.
Final UAB vs. Western Kentucky Prediction and Pick
Western Kentucky has been more impressive than UAB this season, although both have played weak schedules.
The Hilltoppers are 5-2 against the spread (ATS). UAB is just 3-3 ATS.
UAB is 0-2 ATS away from home as well and has a more inefficient quarterback captaining their offense. Without a great pass rush on either side of the ball, I’d back WKU to gain more ground and ultimately end up in the endzone more often.
Final UAB vs. Western Kentucky Pick: Western Kentucky -1.5 (-107) at PointsBet | Playable to -2.0 (+100)
