The 11-1 USC Trojans will face off against the 9-3 Utah Utes in the Pac-12 Championship at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. The Trojans are slight favorites to beat Utah on Friday night. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Utah-USC picks and predictions — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays or best Utah-USC odds. Nonetheless, onto the Utah-USC odds.
College Football Odds: Utah-USC Odds
Utah-USC odds provided by Caesars.
Utes Dealing With Injuries
The Utes didn't control their own destiny in Week 13. They needed to win against Colorado and have Oregon State upset Oregon. Then they needed Washington to beat Washington State in the Apple Cup. Each of those things came together for the Utes, but questions swirl around this team's level of motivation. Utah's returning players already won the Pac-12 last year. Running back Tavion Thomas won't be back this year, and quarterback Cameron Rising won't return next year.
Utah's players took some big hits at Colorado. Tight end Dalton Kincaid went down with a lower back injury and didn't return. Utah's head coach, Kyle Whittingham, hasn't confirmed Kincaid's status for Friday's contest. He told reporters that he expects Kincaid to play but then clarified that his availability isn't guaranteed. Kincaid caught 16 passes for 234 yards, 56.3% of Rising's total yardage. Cornerback Clark Phillips III didn't play last week after going through warmups and may opt to not risk injury as well. He racked up four tackles, one sack and two passes defended in Utah's first game against USC.
Utah ranks 11th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) behind a balanced attack. Their offense ranks a solid 17th and their defense a respectable 23rd. Utah's offense has averaged 6.3 yards per play and 7.1 over its last three contests, although matchups against Stanford and Colorado may explain that recent uptick. The Utes will need to lean on their passing attack to keep up with USC, but their passing offense ranks a lowly 51st in yards per pass attempt (7.6). Cameron Rising ranks only 28th in passing efficiency (151) and has barely improved over last year (146.7).
The Utes bested the Trojans earlier this season at home in Salt Lake City. The Utes are 121-97-5 against the spread at home since Kyle Whittingham took over in 2005, the seventh-best such record through that span. They are a solid but less dominant 11-8 against the spread in neutral-site games. Whittingham has gone just 1-2 in Pac-12 Championship games as head coach. That includes a seven-point loss to Washington in 2018 and a 22-point loss to Oregon in 2019.
Trojans Need to Keep Winning
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— USC Football ✌️ (@uscfb) November 21, 2022
The USC Trojans had their Pac-12 Championship bid locked up before Week 13. They played their rivalry game against Notre Dame with an entirely different subject on their mind: the college football playoff. They beat the Fighting Irish by two scores in a game that never felt close. Lincoln Riley is poised to bring his Pac-12 program to the playoff for the first time, but the Trojans need to keep winning if they want to lock up their spot in the postseason.
The Trojans escaped their rivalry game without any new big-name injuries, but already lost star running back Travis Dye for the season. Fortunately, backup Austin Jones replaced him in and looked efficient last week. He racked up 154 yards and averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Jones scampered for 33 carries on nine carries against Utah earlier this year. With Jones playing acceptably, bettors shouldn't penalize USC too much for Dye's absence. USC's offense begins and ends with star quarterback Caleb Williams anyway.
Williams has been exceptional this season and is a heavy favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. He ranks sixth in passing efficiency (168.5) and has led USC's offense to a first-place ranking in the FEI. The Trojans rank second in yards per play (7.1) and fifth in yards per pass attempt (9.2) under his leadership. Williams threw for 381 yards and a season-high five touchdowns against Utah earlier in the year. However, the Trojans rank just 13th in the FEI because of their 93rd-ranked defense. The Trojans have allowed the 30th-most yards per play (5.9) on the year.
The Trojans may have lost to the Utes earlier in the year, but they covered the spread in Salt Lake City. Lincoln Riley is a perfect 3-0 against the spread when facing ranked opponents at USC. He went 13-7-2 in such situations at Oklahoma. He also went 8-6 against the spread and 10-4 straight up in neutral-site games. Notably, he never lost a Big 12 Championship game and went 2-1-1 against the spread.
Final Utah-USC Prediction & Pick
The spread for this contest opened at USC -2.5, but it then ticked up to -3 throughout the week. Books have since come back down to the opening number, although a few that have moved the number are stacking the juice on USC. The moneyline sits at either -150 or -145 depending on the book.
The total opened at 65.5 but has since ticked up to 67 or 67.5. The Trojans are 9-3 to the over this year, and their first matchup against Utah saw them combine for a whopping 85 points. But as Stuckey at Action Network points out, conference championships with totals set to 65 or higher have stayed under 62.5% of the time.
With a college football playoff spot on the line, Lincoln Riley's Trojans should secure the home win. They have a better offense and more to play for. Although they lost the first meeting and continue to struggle against tight ends like Kincaid, the Trojans made enough adjustments to hold Notre Dame's elite tight end, Michael Mayer, to three catches for 28 yards and a score in the first half of last weekend's game. Bettors should wager enough to profit a unit on USC to win.
Final Utah-USC Pick: USC Moneyline (-145 for 1.45 Units) at Caesars
Final Utah-USC Prediction Tidbit: USC is reaching this stage in their first year with Lincoln Riley as head coach. The Utes won last year's Pac-12 title against the Oregon Ducks, but they had the services of running back Tavion Thomas, who won't suit up again for this game.
