The NFL season is almost here. It is close to the last call for many NFL player futures markets, so folks hoping to get action down should place it soon. A look into NFL betting trends at BetMGM reveals several sharp plays to tail and popular public plays to fade across the market.
2022 NFL Division Trends: Line Movement & Sharp Money
Top Sharp Play: Justin Herbert MVP | +850
Justin Herbert and the Chargers are hard to handicap. That said, sharp bettors have targeted both this offseason. Herbert opened at +1400 to win MVP on BetMGM, but he has attracted 13.8% of the handle — behind only Russell Wilson and Josh Allen — on just 7% of the tickets. In contrast, both Wilson and Allen have drawn a higher percentage of tickets than cash.
The play makes sense. Herbert threw for 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns in his sophomore season, and he now has a better roster around him. Stars Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson will bolster the defense, as will solid defensive tackles Austin Johnson and Sebastian Joseph-Day. A better defense may limit Herbert’s time of possession, but since MVP winners tend to come from playoff-bound teams, Herbert should benefit. Still, the adjusted line of +850 lacks the value you’d hope to find.
Pass or Play This NFL Future? — Pass
Top Sharp Play: Derek Carr Most Passing Yards | +1000
The Las Vegas Raiders added Davante Adams this offseason, and sharp bettors love what that means for Derek Carr. Adams and Carr played together at Fresno State in college, so they already have chemistry. Carr has drawn 27.7% of the money bet on the NFL’s passing yardage leader on just 21.3% of total bets.
Las Vegas will likely find themselves down against all three of their divisional opponents, which will leave Carr in the game for longer. Furthermore, he’ll play five games against defenses that finished in the bottom five against the pass last year. BetMGM hasn’t moved this number below +1000, so tail the sharps.
Pass or Play This NFL Future? — Play Down to +900
Top Sharp Play: Trey Lance Most Interceptions | +2000
When the San Francisco 49ers drafted Trey Lance third overall in 2021, they knew they were taking on a project. Lance sat for most of the season, but he started two games and came off the bench in others. He ended up tossing seven interceptions on just 71 attempts, good for a 2.8% interception rate. Still, Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson, Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Taylor Heinicke and Zach Wilson threw picks at a higher rate.
Lance has drawn an impressive 28% of the handle on just 16.6% of the tickets to throw the most picks next season. Only Jameis Winston has attracted more tickets at 19.7%, but he owns only 16.7% of the handle. BetMGM has since dropped Lance’s odds from +3000 to +2000. Lance threw interceptions at roughly the same rate as Matthew Stafford did last season, so targeting him feels unwarranted.
Pass or Play This NFL Future? — Pass
Top Sharp Play: CeeDee Lamb Most Receptions | +1000
The NFL leader in receptions has emerged from a pass-happy offense the last two years. The Bills attempted the 10th-most passes per game when Stefon Diggs did it in 2020, and the Rams also ranked 10th when Cooper Kupp did it last season. The Cowboys have firmly ranked within the top 10 in passing attempts per game since 2019, and Mike McCarthy’s offense hasn’t ranked outside the top five since 2017.
Lamb has tons of room for improvement. Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson left in the offseason, creating 165 vacant targets. Michael Gallup, who earned 62 targets last year, remains out for the foreseeable future. Perhaps that’s why Lamb has drawn 15.8% of the handle on just 10.8% of the tickets. Unfortunately, BetMGM shortened this line from +1600 to +1000 over the last 48 hours, so the window for value has mostly closed.
Pass or Play This NFL Future? — Play Down to +900
Top Sharp Play: Jonathan Taylor Most Yards Rushing | +375
Bettors can usually trust sharp money to be, well, sharp. That hasn’t been the case on this market. Colts head coach Frank Reich has expressly stated his desire to lessen Taylor’s workload this season. Fewer carries mean fewer yards rushing, and Taylor is unlikely to come close to the 1,811 yards rushing he totaled last season.
Taylor has attracted 35.7% of the handle on just 13.9% of the tickets. Public bettors have backed Derrick Henry, Najee Harris and Saquon Barkley instead. With sharps crashing this line from +600 to +375, Taylor isn’t a smart pick to lead the NFL in yards rushing.
Pass or Play This NFL Future? — Pass
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Top Public Play: Dan Campbell Coach of the Year | +1000
With the world watching “Hard Knocks,” it’s not surprising that Campbell is a popular pick to win Coach of the Year. However, the share of the public willing to do so is surprising. Campbell has attracted 30.2% of the tickets and 31.2% of the handle to win Coach of the Year in 2022. BetMGM has dropped his odds from +1600 to +1000.
The new-look Detroit Lions could fare better this season, but no coach with a losing record has won Coach of the Year since Jimmy Johnson in 1990. Johnson and former Seahawks head coach Jack Patera were the only two coaches in the 16-game era to receive the award after winning fewer than 10 games. With Detroit’s win total sitting at 6.5 across the market, Campbell is unlikely to find the success required to earn Coach of the Year honors.
Pass or Play This NFL Future? — Pass
Top Public Play: Christian McCaffrey Comeback Player of the Year | +750
Once a dominant player both on the ground and through the air, Christian McCaffrey has spent much of the last two seasons on the sidelines. Ankle, shoulder and hamstring injuries have cost him significant time since 2020. But the public expects a recovery; McCaffrey has drawn 20% of the bets to win Comeback Player of the Year, although he controls just 16% of the handle.
A few trends suggest targeting McCaffrey isn’t a good idea. No running back has won this award since Garrison Hearst did it in 2001. Further, McCaffrey will have to compete with another rusher, Derrick Henry, to win the award. The sharps are siding with Henry so far. Worse, BetMGM already dropped McCaffrey’s line from +1000 to +750, so tailing the early public bettors wouldn’t secure as much of a return.
Pass or Play This NFL Future? — Pass
Top Public Play: T.J. Watt Most Sacks | +700
Steelers edge rusher T.J. Watt tied Michael Strahan’s single-season sack record last season with 22.5. He led the league in sacks by four, beating out Robert Quinn. Public bettors love the idea of a repeat performance. Watt has attracted 33.9% of the tickets but only 17.4% of the cash. In contrast, Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby owns a shocking 48.1% of the handle on just 2.3% of the tickets.
BetMGM has left Watt’s odds where they stand despite the amount of action on him; Crosby’s line shortened from +2500 to +1800. The favorite, Myles Garrett, has only attracted 4.5% of bets and 2.7% of the cash, but his line has also stayed firm at +650.
