The Oklahoma City Thunder announced on Wednesday that rookie second-overall pick Chet Holmgren may have ligament damage in his foot. Holmgren suffered the injury during a pro-am game while guarding LeBron James.
Here's the play where Chet Holmgren got hurt tonight. He was guarding @KingJames one-on-one. It's hard to tell how he got hurt. He might have just stepped weirdly. @ChetHolmgren @thecrawsover #thunder pic.twitter.com/AzUBYUgnyV
— Nathan Thompson (@NathanDThompson) August 21, 2022
Although the Thunder currently plan for the 20-year-old to undergo other evaluations, the news has already affected NBA betting markets. Here’s how to navigate the NBA Rookie of the Year market with the new question marks surrounding Holmgren’s health.
2022-23 NBA Betting Odds: Rookie of the Year Picks
2022-23 NBA Rookie of the Year Betting Odds
Chet Holmgren‘s injury has already started to swing the Rookie of the Year market. Once listed at +375 earlier this week, Holmgren now sits between +700 at FanDuel and +1000 at DraftKings. PointsBet adjusted their line to +800. In corresponding moves, Holmgren’s rivals have seen their lines shorten.
The Orlando Magic‘s first overall pick, Paolo Banchero, is now all the more favored to win the award. Once available at +280, he now sits between +250 at PointsBet and +220 at DraftKings. FanDuel moved their line to +240 during the preparation of this article.
Keegan Murray and Jaden Ivey have also seen considerable movement in their favor. Murray, chosen fourth overall by the Sacramento Kings, went from +600 earlier this week to no better than the +550 available at FanDuel. DraftKings now has his line at +450, giving him the second-best odds for the award. Ivey, now a member of the Pistons, also saw his number shorten, but only at some books. As long as +750 earlier in the week, Ivey now finds himself at +650 at FanDuel and +600 at PointsBet, yet he remains at +750 on DraftKings.
The third overall pick, Jabari Smith, hasn’t benefited like Banchero and Murray. He opened the week at +650 at some books and now sits between that number and the +750 available at PointsBet.
Rookie of the Year: Chet Holmgren | +1000 at DraftKings
One approach bettors can take to the Holmgren news is to ignore it and hope for the best. Since Holmgren’s odds were as short as +375 just this week, bettors willing to stomach the risk may pocket a boatload of value by buying this line at DraftKings, but only if Holmgren can get healthy fast.
It’s hard to speculate about the severity of Holmgren’s injury without access to the records that the Oklahoma City Thunder have. That said, a partial ligament tear could hold Holmgren out for several weeks, but it probably won’t Holmgren’s his season. He could possibly return from it by October.
Still, the injury doesn’t bode well for Holmgren’s ability to stay healthy. Players who miss extended time due to injury rarely win Rookie of the Year. LaMelo Ball missed over a month and still won the award in 2020-21, but he faced little competition until Anthony Edwards surged late in the season. Holmgren won’t have the benefit of competing against a mediocre draft class. Furthermore, no Rookie of the Year winner since Kyrie Irving has played in fewer than 70% of his team’s games.
Rookie of the Year: Paolo Banchero | +250 at PointsBet
The money is coming in fast on Paolo Banchero. FanDuel just dropped the line from +260 to +240 within the hour, and his odds are likely to keep plummeting. Bettors looking to back Banchero should either commit their action now or wait for better news out of the Holmgren camp.
If Holmgren misses the start of the regular season — or he can’t stay healthy — this is Banchero’s award to lose. Smith may turn out to be better than Banchero in the long run, but Smith lacks the readiness that Banchero brings to the association. Banchero has the size, build and high-pressure experience to become an immediate contributor in Orlando.
Banchero also benefits from his landing spot. Unlike Murray and Ivey, the Magic may not have a better offensive weapon than their newly acquired rookie. Murray will still slot in behind both Domantas Sabonis and De’Aaron Fox, while Ivey fits behind Cade Cunningham. As a result, Banchero may rack up a ton of counting stats and run away with the Rookie of the Year Award.
