NFL Week 3 is in the books, and as usual, nothing has gone as planned. There are only two teams who have gone 3-0, and nobody expected those undefeated teams to be the Eagles and Dolphins. The only teams who have yet to pick up a win are the Raiders and Texans, so most of the league is separated by just one game. That means that no one is really out of the race heading into Week 4.
There has also been some significant movement in the MVP betting market. Josh Allen remains the clear favorite, but the list of names behind him is a bit surprising. There have been some unexpected contenders pushing up the leaderboard, while some preseason favorites have plummeted.
Let’s dive into some of the biggest risers and fallers heading into NFL Week 4.
2022 NFL MVP Odds & Predictions
Riser: Lamar Jackson +1200 to +700
Jackson has had a phenomenal start to his season. He leads the league in a host of passing statistics, including 10 touchdown passes, a 119.0 quarterback rating and 8.99 adjusted net yards per pass attempt. It’s easy to say that he’s due for some regression as a passer. Jackson’s 11.4% touchdown rate is the top mark in the league by a wide margin, but he had a 9.0% touchdown rate in his previous MVP season.
The rushing production has also been there for Jackson. He leads the league with an absurd 9.3 yards per attempt, and he’s already found the endzone twice on the ground. He’s also averaging 81.0 rushing yards per game, which would represent another career high.
Ultimately, it’s hard not to love what Jackson brings to the table. He has the statistics, and his team should be in contention all year long. He’ll need a misstep from Josh Allen to overtake him, but Allen and the Bills proved last week that they’re not invincible. If you missed out on Jackson previously, you can still get in at this price tag.
Recommendation: Buy
Riser: Jalen Hurts +1100 to +700
Hurts makes this list for the third consecutive week, and he’s now tied with Jackson and Patrick Mahomes at +700. Allen is the only player with lower odds across the industry.
Hurts undoubtedly deserves to be in that conversation. He’s always been a talented runner, but he’s made major strides as a passer this season. He’s racked up at least 333 passing yards in back-to-back games, and he’s averaging nearly 100 more passing yards per game than he did last year.
The Eagles have also established themselves as one of the best teams in the NFC. They’re one of just two undefeated teams left in football – along with the Dolphins in the AFC – and they should be able to pick up another win this week vs. the Jaguars. Hurts is going to be in this conversation for the long haul if the Eagles keep winning games.
However, I’m not sure I’m interested in Hurts at this price tag. Despite his team’s success, Hurts hasn’t exactly piled up the typical statistics you need to win the MVP award. He has just four touchdown passes through the first three weeks, and while he’s added three scores on the ground, it still puts him well behind guys like Jackson and Allen. Hurts was obviously a good bet at better than +2000, but I don’t think the same is true at +700.
Recommendation: Sell
Riser: Trevor Lawrence +7000 to +3800
Lawrence remains on the outside of the MVP conversation, but his odds were nearly cut in half following his performance in Week 3. He threw three more touchdown passes, bringing his total to six through the first three weeks. Lawrence looked like a major bust during his rookie season, but he’s started to look like the player everyone expected him to be.
Is that good enough to warrant some MVP buzz? Not really. It’s possible he continues to improve, and the Jaguars certainly aren’t as bad as everyone expected. The Jaguars currently rank second in Football Outsiders overall DVOA, and no one saw that coming. However, they haven’t exactly played a juggernaut schedule. They lost a close game to the Commanders and dominated the Colts and a decimated Chargers squad.
Even as a long shot, I’m selling Lawrence and the Jags at their current prices.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Patrick Mahomes +425 to +700
Any panic about Mahomes and the Chiefs is probably unwarranted at this point. They lost to the Colts last week, but it was one of the most deceptive losses of the young season. They were far more efficient than the Colts on a per-play basis, but they routinely shot themselves in the foot near the end zone. The Chiefs had three second-half drives inside the Indy 25-yard line, and they came away with just three total points.
Still, the Chiefs offense ranks fourth in points per game and seventh in yards, and Mahomes has been a big reason why. He’s racked up eight touchdown passes compared to just one interception, and he’s averaged just under 280 yards per game.
Mahomes and the Chiefs have some tough matchups coming up – their next three games are against the Buccaneers, Raiders, and Bills – but that should allow Mahomes to make up some ground in the MVP race. He’ll obviously have to play well in those contests, but outperforming Allen in a head-to-head matchup would do wonders for his stock. He’s still a major factor in this race.
Recommendation: Buy
Faller: Kyler Murray +3000 to +5000
The Cardinals have played basically one good quarter this season. That hasn’t necessarily been Murray’s fault – they’d likely be 0-3 without him – but it’s hard to see much room for growth moving forward. DeAndre Hopkins won’t be able to return for another three weeks, and the team simply doesn’t have much offensive talent without him.
Ultimately, Murray has averaged just 5.6 adjusted yards per attempt this season, which is easily the worst mark of his career. He also has just three touchdown passes, so he’s well behind the current favorites from a statistical standpoint. He has some advantageous matchups over the next few weeks, but I’m not buying at this price tag.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Joe Burrow +2200 to +3500
Burrow’s season couldn’t have gotten off to a much worse start, but he had two brutal matchups vs. the Steelers and Cowboys. They have two of the best pass rushes in the league, and the Bengals’ biggest weakness is their offensive line. Against teams with quality edge rushers, Burrow is going to be under constant duress.
That didn’t figure to be an issue vs. the Jets, and Burrow rebounded with his best game of the year. He racked up 275 yards and three touchdown passes, and he got the Bengals in the win column for the first time all year.
Burrow now gets a matchup with the undefeated Dolphins, and a win would be excellent for Burrow’s MVP chances. He might be too far behind to make a serious run, but I still think there’s a smidge of value at +3500. I’d much rather take someone like him than Lawrence at a similar price tag.
Recommendation: Buy
