Looking at the two biggest awards for incoming NFL rookies and a couple of obvious trends are revealed. The difficulty is always finding the value on the NFL odds futures board before any of these young men take their first snap. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the 2022 NFL Rookie of the Year odds, and then go over my two favorite Rookie of the Year predictions for 2022.
2022 NFL Rookie of the Year Odds, Picks & Predictions
Preseason is hardly a barometer for any season, especially those who haven’t played at the NFL speed. It’s not just how easy one of these bright stars will transfer to the NFL; it’s the team and rest of the field that play an equal factor. One year’s Justin Herbert is another Kyler Murray, meaning the yardage and touchdowns change each season, as does the weak or strong field around them. The Offensive Rookie of the Year rewards rookie quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs, although Ja’Marr Chase was the first receiver to win it in seven years. It’s a little more skimmed down on defense, as there have only been four cornerbacks to win the award over the past 20 years, the rest being edge rushers, interior monsters and stud linebackers.
Offensive Rookie of the Year Prediction | DraftKings Offer: Bet $5, Get $200
Most books pit Kenny Pickett as the odds-on favorite, ahead of Drake London and Chris Olave. Breece Hall is the top running back, and teammate Garrett Wilson joins him in the top 10 preseason odds. Put a hard red line through anyone playing on the New York Jets. That offense isn’t up to par, there are questions about the longevity of their quarterback after another injury to Zach Wilson, and the defense will be on the field a ton this year. Scratch out Pickett and his teammate George Pickens. This offense is geared around their running back first and struggled to move the ball down field last year even with talent. London is a talent to watch in this league, but his quarterback situation is far from admirable with Marcus Mariota at the helm.
The interesting angle for Olave coincides with jumping on his value before he becomes the favorite and before his number is cut in half. The same could be argued with Pickett leading a smaller quarterback class — Malik Willis is 28-1 and Desmond Ridder is 20-1 (although listed behind Mariota), but that offense isn’t going to suddenly blossom in Pittsburgh. Olave plays on a Saints team that’s desperate to make a couple of things work around him, which, in turn, will exponentially help his chances of winning the award.
There’s a new coach working with Jameis Winston and the return of Michael Thomas. Dennis Allen will focus on the defense, leaving Pete Carmichael Jr. to step into the spotlight. It’s unclear how much Carmichael truly impacted the offense with Sean Payton lurking above, so expect an aggressive passing offense to come out early in New Orleans. Thomas might be back at full strength taking multiple defenders with him wherever he goes or may struggle to get back into it. Either way, Olave benefits because it will take a good month before teams start to ease off Thomas.
2022 NFL Rookie of the Year Prediction: Chris Olave (+1000 DraftKings)
Defensive Rookie of the Year Prediction | DraftKings Offer: Bet $5, Get $200
This award presents a little more value in some longer shots. The linebacker position has an extra boost this year especially with a variety of stats that help push their chances even higher. Playing for a bad defense but standing out certainly helps, as does leading rookies in sacks or tackles, but a combination plus longer odds makes one rookie stand out even bigger than his peers. The goal is to find guys with significantly better odds than Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux, and that’s where a 20-1 long shot in Nakobe Dean makes sense. In fact, he’s down to +1800 at FanDuel, +1200 at DraftKings.
The Philadelphia Eagles linebacker was taken in the third round despite a first-round grade. An injury was the only thing that dropped his draft grade, and the Eagles — not thin by any means at the position — still recognized the value on the board. He grades as well as anyone at his position outside of the injury, so staying healthy means a first-rounder is now on the field. The Eagles will immediately work him in; nobody above or parallel to him on the depth chart is making the Pro Bowl. They drafted Jordan Davis to help clog up the middle with Fletcher Cox, so Dean stands to benefit from increased tackles and sacks. The secret will be out once Dean proves to be healthy and this number could be cut in half. The same can’t be said for guys at the top of the board right now.
2022 NFL Rookie of the Year Prediction: Nakobe Dean (+1800 DraftKings)
