The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons entered the season with very different expectations. The Buccaneers had Super Bowl visions with Tom Brady returning, while the Falcons were trying to patch things together at quarterback with Marcus Mariota. Despite their differences, they enter this matchup with identical 2-2 records. Let’s discuss how the battle for first place in the NFC South might play out.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons: Week 5 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Odds (via BetMGM)
Spread: Buccaneers -9.5
Over/Under: 46.5 points
Location: Raymond James Stadium
Time: 1 p.m. EST
TV: FOX
Buccaneers Offense vs. Falcons Defense
Injuries have taken a toll on the Buccaneers, who have rarely had all of their top options available in the same game. That’s part of the reason they failed to score more than 20 points in any of their first three games. Wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were both available in Week 4 against the Kansas City Chiefs, though, which contributed to the Buccaneers scoring 31 points. Brady threw for 385 yards and three touchdowns in the 10-point loss, with the offense mostly abandoning the run to keep pace with Patrick Mahomes. Tampa Bay ran the ball a total of six times for 3 yards, a trend that likely won’t continue against an opponent that doesn’t have the same type of explosive offense.
The Falcons defense hasn’t done them too many favors. They have allowed at least 20 points in all four games and at least 27 points twice. They have allowed the eighth-most yards passing per game in the NFL, which means Brady could be in line for another juicy stat line. The NFL Player Props Tool has him projected to throw for 297.6 yards and 2.2 touchdowns.
Falcons Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
The Falcons offense revolves around their running game. That could lead to trouble with Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) now on IR. Expect them to rely more on Tyler Allgeier, who ran 10 times for 84 yards in Week 4 against the Cleveland Browns. Tight end Kyle Pitts is out with a hamstring injury, so Atlanta needs a bounce-back week from WR Drake London, who caught two of seven targets for 17 yards last week.
Another problem with the Falcons wanting to run the ball is that the Buccaneers have an excellent run defense. The NFL Player Props Tool has Allgeier projected to run for 53.3 yards. Even with the Chiefs scoring 41 points last week, the Buccaneers have allowed 68 points overall. Things might be difficult for Mariota and Co.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Pick
This game would seem to suggest a blowout. The Buccaneers are at home, have a significant advantage at quarterback, and Patterson is out for the Falcons. However, the Falcons have played tough, with all four of their games decided by 4 points or fewer. They were down 31-10 at one point in the fourth quarter of their Week 2 loss to the Rams but finished the game on a 17-0 run. Something crazy like that could happen in this game, so given this big number, don’t be surprised if the Falcons cover.
Buccaneers vs. Falcons Prediction: Falcons +9.5 at BetMGM
