The Indianapolis Colts have started the season in terrible form. New quarterback Matt Ryan has struggled. His top wide receivers, Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce, both missed Week 2 with injuries. The Colts are now 0-1-1 after two divisional games and face a tough fight to the top of the AFC South.
In contrast, the Kansas City Chiefs are off to an electric 2-0 start and have asserted their dominance over the AFC West. No wonder the sportsbooks predict the Chiefs will beat the Colts by just under a touchdown in Indianapolis.
The total for this Week 3 matchup sits at 50.5, which slots in as the third-highest number this week. The player prop markets point to a big game for Patrick Mahomes and Jonathan Taylor.
Chiefs vs. Colts Week 3 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Chiefs vs. Colts Betting Odds
Chiefs Strong On Both Sides of the Field
The Kansas City Chiefs haven't looked perfect, but they have looked like the second-best NFL team behind only the Buffalo Bills. Much of the credit belongs to quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The talented signal-caller has completed 73% of his passes for seven scores and 7.81 net yards per attempt (NY/A). He has taken only one sack and thrown no interceptions. The Chiefs have taken the loss of veteran wideout Tyreek Hill in stride.
Kansas City's offensive line has performed well. The Chiefs rank 11th in adjusted line yards and first in adjusted sack rate. Although Mahomes faced pressure on 58.5% of his dropbacks in Week 1, that was against a whopping 23 blitzes -- and he didn't get sacked once. Mahomes faced pressure on only 11.1% of his dropbacks in Week 2. Lead back Clyde Edwards-Helaire is also averaging 2.1 yards before contact as well. Left guard Joe Thuney and center Creed Humphrey both own PFF grades above 80.
The defense has also played well despite losing leader Tyrann Mathieu in the offseason. The Chiefs rank 10th in yards allowed per play (5.0) and ninth in third-down conversions allowed per game (4.0). Opposing offenses have averaged only 5.9 yards per pass attempt and 3.9 yards per run. Those numbers are all the more impressive considering that Kansas City faced Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert in Weeks 1 and 2.
Colts Strong Against Run, Weak Against Pass
Unlike the Chiefs, the Indianapolis Colts have looked terrible thus far. Quarterback Matt Ryan has completed only 60% of his passes for a single touchdown and 5.8 NY/A. He has taken seven sacks and thrown four interceptions. Ryan struggled without Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce last weekend, but he could get Pittman back in time for Week 3. Ashton Dulin flashed more than enough talent in their absences to warrant some confidence in the passing game as well.
Despite his best efforts, star guard Quenton Nelson hasn't been able to elevate the offensive line. He owns a PFF grade of 75, but three of his teammates own grades below 61. That said, all three of those players recorded grades higher than Nelson's last year, although two of them did so at different positions. New left tackle Matt Pryor looked better on the right, and new right guard Danny Pinter looked better at center. The Colts enter Week 3 ranked 21st in adjusted line yards and 23rd in adjusted sack rate, but those numbers could improve as the unit gels over the course of the year. Still, the run blockers have managed to give Jonathan Taylor a consistent 3.8 yards before contact each game.
The defense has struggled without star linebacker Shaquille Leonard, who remains out with an injury. Without Leonard, the Colts rank seventh in yards allowed per play (4.7) but only 20th in third down conversions surrendered per game (5.5). The Colts have not played balanced defense. The defensive front ranks second in adjusted line yards and has given up only 2.7 yards per run. However, the secondary has allowed 6.8 yards per pass. Boundary cornerback Stephon Gilmore has looked good so far, but slot cornerback Kenny Moore has not.
Chiefs vs. Colts Prediction
The Colts have used each of their wide receivers all over the field. None of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore and Mecole Hardman have played fewer than 25% of their snaps in the slot. That makes identifying a clear slot receiver difficult, but Smith-Schuster lead the team with a 54.8% slot rate. Smith-Schuster and Valdes-Scantling also share the lead in route participation for wideouts at 81.1%. Travis Kelce leads the team in the metric.
Indianapolis' stingy defensive front and struggles against slot wideouts make Smith-Schuster a sharp player to target on the betting markets. Although he caught three passes for only 10 yards last week, he caught six passes for 79 yards the week before. His receiving yardage prop sits between 49.5 and 50.5 across the market, with the best price available at Barstool -- although bettors can find roughly the same juice (-115 instead of -120) at most other books.
Chiefs vs. Colts Prediction: JuJu Smith-Schuster Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (-114) at Barstool
Chiefs vs. Colts OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 3 matchup between the Chiefs and Colts, the model has identified the first-half moneyline as the best value bet on the market.
Backing the Colts to win the first half yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to BetMGM for the best price on the market!
