If you follow this column, you know that Week 1 was very successful. We hit the New York Giants +5.5 and even had a sprinkle on the moneyline.
This week we’re looking to find an edge for the Cincinnati Bengals vs. Dallas Cowboys at AT & T Stadium in Arlington.
The line for this matchup currently sits at -7 in favor of the Bengals. This line moved massively from +2 to -7 for the Bengals, all because the Cowboys lost their quarterback Dak Prescott due to injury. The total also moved sharply, from 50 to 41.5 points, making it one of the lowest totals of the week.
Both teams come into this game sitting at 0-1 after suffering defeats at home in Week 1. It’s a disappointing start for both sides when you consider that both teams were heavy favorites to make the postseason, if not contend for a Super Bowl berth.
This is a very interesting game to break down. Let’s find another Sunday winner for Week 2.
Bengals vs Cowboys Week 2 NFL Betting Odds & Predictions
Life Without Dak Prescott
The main storyline to this entire game is the loss of quarterback Dak Prescott. Prescott is expected to be out around 6-8 weeks. Jerry Jones wants to keep selling tickets, so he thinks his star can come back within the next four weeks, but that’s another story. Replacing Prescott for the foreseeable future is Cooper Rush.
There are no additional injuries for the Cowboys outside of Prescott. Wide receiver Michael Gallup does remain out with an injury and it is unclear if rookie wide receiver Jalen Tolbert will be active for this game.
This isn’t Rush’s first rodeo at quarterback. A similar situation happened last year when Rush had to to make a spot start against the Minnesota Vikings due to a Prescott injury. He led the Cowboys on a touchdown drive late in that game to win 20-16. Seeing that comeback, we know that Rush is capable as a starter. Expect the Cowboys to rally around him, I’m just not sure their talent will be enough.
Last week was so bad, even when Prescott was playing. The Cowboys only scored three points! CeeDee Lamb was forced the ball a ton and had a team-high 11 targets, but only two catches. Ezekiel Elliott was decent with 10 carries for 52 yards, but Tony Pollard was atrocious as he only had eight yards on six carries.
The Buccaneers have a very stout run defense, so hopefully these two backs can find more success on the ground this week against the Bengals. That may be difficult as the Bengals allowed only 75 yards against the Steelers in an overtime game. Wide receiver Chase Claypool led the Steeler’s in rushing yards in that one.
It has only been one week but the Cowboys are already in shambles. The Bengals have a chance to add another hole in the Cowboys sinking ship. Seven points is a sizable home underdog, but the number seems very fair and it is tough to back the Cowboys here.
Bounce Back Spot for the Bengals
A loss to the Buccaneers seemed reasonable for the Cowboys, but a Cincinnati Bengals loss at home to the Pittsburgh Steelers was pretty surprising. They had so many chances to win in regulation and even overtime, but a blocked extra point and a missed field goal sealed their fate. A 0-1 start isn’t great for the Super Bowl runner-up from last season.
Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins suffered a concussion during Week 1 and is questionable to play in this game. If he were to miss, expect Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd to pick up the slack. Higgins did have a full practice on Friday so he is likely to be in the starting lineup. Speaking of Chase, this phenom picked up right where he left off last season. He had 10 catches for 129 yards and a touchdown on the last play of regulation to tie the game. Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs won’t have an answer for Chase’s connection with quarterback Joe Burrow.
Running back Joe Mixon was second in the league Week 1 in total carries with 27. He even added seven receptions for 63 yards. This dynamic back could be the difference maker in this matchup as the Cowboys allowed 152 rushing yards last week. Mixon is a bell-cow running back who loves the heavy workload and getting into the flow of the offense.
Expect a bounce back performance from the Bengals. The whole team should come out strong, specifically Burrow. He threw a career-high four interceptions last week as his timing looked off and the Steelers defensive line with TJ Watt were rattling his cage all game. Blocking Micah Parsons who had two sacks in Week 1 will be the key to the Bengals offense line keeping Burrow on his feet.
It is hard to imagine a better spot for the Bengals coming off a loss than playing a Cowboys team without Prescott under center. They should be able to score on this Cowboys defense with ease.
Cowboys vs. Bengals Prediction
This could be a very slow and ugly game, which shouldn’t be a surprise with the total at 41.5 points. Looking at Oddshopper the best bet in this matchup is the Bengals first quarter moneyline at -176 on FanDuel. That’s not enough juice for me, and I do think the Cowboys come to play at least early in this game even when they are undermanned.
I also contemplated taking the Cowboys under team total at 17.5, but that number is so low and should be attainable even with Rush at quarterback. Instead, I am going with a traditional bet and taking the Bengals -7 and I would feel comfortable taking this up too -8 points. There is simply too much talent on the Bengals offense to be slowed down. They will light up the scoreboard and I’m uncertain if the Cowboys can follow suit.
If you are looking to add a player prop bet, Oddshopper loves nearly all of the Cowboys receiver options unders. The one that stands out the most is Cowboys wide receiver Dennis Houston under 20.5 receiving yards (-117) at Caesars Sportsbook. He had 16 yards in Week 1 on two catches and five targets.
Best NFL Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -7 (-110) at DraftKings | Would bet this up to -8.
