The Miami Dolphins pushed in their chips at the trade deadline and acquired pass rusher Bradley Chubb from the Denver Broncos. In contrast, the Chicago Bears shipped off pass rusher Robert Quinn and linebacker Roquan Smith — but they also acquired Chase Claypool. A look at the NFL odds reveals the Dolphins are slight road favorites. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Dolphins-Bears picks and predictions or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
NFL Odds: Dolphins-Bears Odds
Dolphins Leaning Heavily on Tagovailoa
The Dolphins have looked great under head coach Mike McDaniel. They rank 12th in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and are an above-average team in expected points added (EPA) per play. Although they got off to a slow start against the Lions last week, the Dolphins stopped the bleeding and won the second half by two scores. They gave up no points in the process.
Miami's passing attack -- headed by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa -- has led the way. The Dolphins rank third in yards per play (6.2) despite ranking a lowly 27th in yards per rush attempt (3.9). Tagovailoa leads the NFL in net yards per attempt (NY/A) with 8.31. Only two other quarterbacks, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, have recorded more than 7.5 NY/A. Tagovailoa has completed 69.9% of his passes, which ranks third, with 80.2% of his throws deemed on-target, which ranks fifth.
The Dolphins will hope to jump-start their rushing attack with the addition of Jeff Wilson from the 49ers. He joins Raheem Mostert as another back to have made the jump from San Francisco and Kyle Shanahan's offense, under whom McDaniel previously worked. But with the Dolphins ranked 20th in adjusted line yards and 17th in run-block win rate, they have their work cut out for them. Still, both players have generated far more defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) than ex-Dolphin Chase Edmonds has.
Miami's defense has been an issue. The Dolphins rank a lowly 25th in defensive DVOA and 26th in yards allowed per play (5.5). Their passing defense ranks 28th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.3), in part because the pass rush has generated pressure on only 14.8% of dropbacks, which ranks 29th. That said, adding Chubb should help the Dolphins attack opposing quarterbacks more effectively. And while the rushing offense ranks 11th in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.2), Miami surrendered 119 yards on the ground to quarterback Lamar Jackson and 47 to Josh Allen.
Bears Copying Greg Roman's Designed Runs
The Chicago Bears shipped off two expiring contracts for picks, then finally made a move to get a wide receiver. Although Chase Claypool hasn't looked like a world-beater, he scored 11 touchdowns as a rookie and had been shoehorned into the slot by the Steelers. He'll get a chance to help Justin Fields prove himself as a passer. The Bears need him to do so -- they rank 29th in total DVOA and are solidly below average in EPA per play.
Fields hasn't looked like a viable NFL quarterback this year. He has completed only 58.5% of his passes, which ranks 32nd among 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts, for 5.32 NY/A, which ranks 30th. A lack of viable receiving weapons explains only some of Fields' struggles. His on-target throw percentage (67.1%) ranks 33rd, and his true completion percentage (62.8%) ranks 34th.
But for all of Fields' flaws a passer, he sure can run the ball. Fields has gone for 60-plus rushing yards on 6.8 yards per attempt over the last three weeks as the Bears have copied some of Baltimore's designed runs for Lamar Jackson. They featured those plays heavily against the Patriots after Jackson gashed them for 107 yards, and they're likely to feature them again against the Dolphins.
Chicago's defense won't be the same without Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. Although fifth-round rookie Dominique Robinson has looked solid, the Bears may struggle to replicate their 17th-ranked pressure percentage (22.3%) moving forward. Chicago ranks 26th in defensive DVOA and 22nd in yards allowed per play (5.7). Their defense has primarily struggled against the run, as they rank 27th in yards allowed per rush attempt (5) and 31st in rushing yards allowed per game (156), but they will now have their work cut out for them against the pass as well.
Final Dolphins-Bears Prediction & Pick
Unless the Dolphins make some significant adjustments to their scheme, expect them to struggle against Fields as a rusher. Both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen got most of what they wanted on the ground against the Dolphins earlier in the season. With Chicago taking plays from Baltimore, backing Fields to scamper for plenty of yards should prove profitable.
Some factors suggest Fields' rushing prop has also been set too low at 49.5. Fields has averaged 53 rushing yards per game this year, but that number spikes to 76.7 when looking at just the last three weeks. Fields has gotten more efficient as a rusher over time and as the Bears integrate plays from the Ravens' playbook. Bettors should wager enough to profit a full unit.
Final Dolphins-Bears Pick: Justin Fields Over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-119 for 1.19 Units) at Caesars
Dolphins-Bears OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 9 Dolphins-Bears matchup, the model has identified a Miami receiver as a player to target at his current price.
Betting the over on Tyreek Hill's total receptions yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to Caesars for the best price on the market!
