This AFC East division clash between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets features two of the better defenses in the league right now. Using data in research, this post’s focus will be on making a Jets-Bills prediction, highlighting Josh Allen, odds and other information.
This may turn into a slugfest as each of the past five games between these two teams have gone under the total points line. Expect the Bills to do most of the scoring as they are an impressive 11-point road favorites having won four-straight games and just coming off of their bye two weeks ago.
The Jets have been playing very well having won four-straight games themselves before losing last week to the Patriots. With standout rookie running back Breece Hall out for the season, this team may have some trouble scoring as they rely on the inconsistencies of quarterback Zach Wilson. Huge game for the Jets before their bye next week. Let’s break it down.
Jets-Bills Prediction, Picks & Week 9 Betting Odds
Heavy Road Favorites
After a mediocre game against the Packers, Josh Allen and the Bills look to build on their 6-1 record that leads the AFC. Allen leads the league with 314 passing yards per game as this offense ranks second in Pass DVOA this season. He has a career-high QBR and may be on his way to his first MVP award if the Bills keep on winning games. Having a dual threat quarterback puts so much pressure on the opposing defense and Allen does that better than anyone.
Stefon Diggs has been Allen’s top target as he is tied for the league-high with seven touchdowns. He has a team-high 26.9% target share, which ranks as the 10th-highest in the league. His production will be put to the test against rookie No. 4 overall pick Sauce Gardner who is tied for the league-lead is pass deflections this season. There will likely be a lot of trash talking in this matchup, so get your popcorn ready.
Outside of Diggs, Gabriel Davis has been the Bills deep threat. He leads the league with 26.1 yards per catch, but has been on and off the field with injuries for most of the season. The upside is there if Davis can just stay healthy. After a career-high nine touchdowns last season, Dawson Knox only has two touchdowns this year and 26.3 yards per game. With Gardner and the rest of the cornerbacks, the Jets rank eighth in Pass DVOA making this a tough spot for the Bills pass catchers.
The Bills added Colts gadget running back Nyheim Hines at the trade deadline to make their offense even more versatile. This doesn’t take away with how well Devin Singletary has played this season. In his last four games, Singletary is averaging. over five yards per carry, but had yet to score a rushing touchdown. That is where having Allen in the red zone is such a great asset. His teammates may not like it, but Allen still loves to run over defenders.
It has been a relative breeze for the Bills offense thus far. However, the Jets are the toughest defense they will have played against all season. Being 11-point favorites is so many points for a road team, no matter who they are. They have the highest implied total on the slate, but it wouldn’t be surprising if this turned into a defensive battle.
Jets
The underdogs have covered the spread in seven of the last eight games between the Bills and Jets when the game is being played at MetLife Stadium. That’s a strong trend on the Jets side, but it is going to be tough to take them playing without stud rookie running back Breece Hall. They are trying to make their backfield work with Michael Carter and James Robinson who combined for 43 yards on 12 carries last week.
This Jets offense could be in trouble relying on second-year pro Zach Wilson under center. Last week was the first time in his career where Wilson threw for over 300 yards. He did have two passing touchdowns, but also threw three interceptions. Some of the throws he is making are no where near a receiver. Look for the Bills defense to make Wilson’s life difficult as they have a league-high 11 interceptions entering this week.
Wide receiver Corey Davis is out for the Jets if that matters that much. Garrett Wilson had seven targets last week as the disgruntled Elijah Moore only had one. There could be a squeaky wheel narrative surrounding Moore this week, but he has just a 10% target share this season. Last week it was actually tight end Tyler Conklin who led the Jets with 10 targets as he caught six passes for 79 yards and the only two touchdowns that Wilson threw.
It will be tough to get behind anything from this Jets offense as the Bills rank fourth in total defense DVOA this season. They are only allowing 298.1 yards per game, which ranks as the third-lowest in the league. There is a reason the Jets have an extremely low 17.25 implied total. If they get to 20 points, that may be enough for them to cover this large spread, but it is scary trying to figure out how they are going to score points against this Bills defense.
Jets-Bills Prediction
The story of this article has been defense, defense, defense. That is what we will hang our hat on in this matchup. We’ll take the under 46 points. Picking a side seems too risky with such a large spread, even though the Bills should have their way with this game as they lead the league in yards gained and rank third in yards allowed.
Outdoor divisional unders are 19-6 this season and 55-33 since the start of 2021. All three of the Jets losses have come at home, but they may find a way to hang in this game leaning on their stout defense.
Looking at OddsShopper for this game, the best bet on the board is Garrett Wilson over 45.5 receiving yards. If the Jets are going to be competitive, they will need a big game from Wilson to Wilson. He leads the Jets with a 19.7% target share this season. Stokastic projects Wilson for 61.8 receiving yards as this over has an xWin rate of 68%.
Take the Wilson over receiving yards prop and this game total under.
Best Jets-Bills Prediction: Game Total Under 46 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
