After an eventful Week 9, the Week 10 NFL betting odds are open. Several teams are coming off a bye this week, so bettors will have several chances to back teams with a rest advantage. You can start looking for a positive return by tailing these early Week 10 NFL predictions and picks. Two bets that stand out early in the week are the Cowboys over the Packers in Green Bay and the Giants over the Texans at home.
Sharp bettors often bet early. Identifying games where future line movement seems likely allows bettors to secure closing line value (CLV) relative to the game’s final spread. Taking a team to cover a 2.5-point spread has a much better chance of hitting than taking that same team to cover a 3.5-point spread, if it moves in that direction. Bettors can secure more value now than they’ll get right before kickoff by getting their action down on the Week 10 NFL betting markets early.
Early NFL Week 10 Predictions & Betting Picks
Cowboys-Packers: Fade Banged-Up Green Bay Squad
Shorting the Packers feels obvious at this point. If they can’t even beat the Detroit Lions, how can they cover against the Dallas Cowboys? While the current line is sure to be a favorite among public bettors this week, it will likely end up closer to a full touchdown by kickoff. The Packers suffered several big injuries — Romeo Doubs, Eric Stokes, Rashan Gary and Aaron Jones will all be on this week’s injury report.
The Packers and Aaron Rodgers have looked out of sorts all season. Rodgers doesn’t have the receiving weapons he needs around him to win games, and his offensive line hasn’t helped him much. Rodgers has faced pressure on 19.1% of his dropbacks and has completed just 39.3% of his throws under pressure. That’ll prove problematic against Dallas’ pass rush, which leads the NFL in pressure percentage (30.5%) and sacks per game (4.13).
Unlike the Packers, the Cowboys have looked dominant all season. Getting quarterback Dak Prescott back has helped them rank seventh in yards per play (6) over each team’s last three contests. Their defense ranks eighth in yards allowed per play (4.9) over that span. With Ezekiel Elliott likely back in the fold next week, the Cowboys should come off their by week strong and well-rested, allowing them to advance to 7-2 against the spread.
Cowboys-Packers Prediction: Cowboys -5 (-110 for 1.1 Unit) at DraftKings
NFL Week 11 Early Teaser: Back the Giants and Cowboys to Win
Not much value stands out on next week’s board. As a result, bettors should back the Giants and Cowboys on the moneyline in a two-leg teaser. For one leg, the Cowboys should win and cover against the struggling Packers, especially if their NFL-best pass rush can get home against Aaron Rodgers and his limited receiving corps.
For the second leg, the Giants should win a slow, low-scoring game over the Texans. Houston’s defense struggles to stop the one thing New York excels at most: running the football. New York ranks 10th in yards per rush attempt (4.9), but Houston ranks 310th in yards allowed per rush attempt (5.5). Although New York’s own rushing defense ranks 31st in yards allowed per rush attempt (5.5), Houston ranks only 21st in yards per rush attempt (4.3).
One advanced metric also supports backing New York to beat Houston. The Giants rank slightly above the league average in expected points added (EPA) per play. In contrast, Houston ranks last in the metric. However, because both rushing defenses have looked so awful — and because both teams rank 23rd in seconds per play (30) — bettors should avoid playing the spread and simply back the Giants to win. The odds for this teaser sit below +100 at every major sportsbook except FanDuel, and they’ll likely adjust their odds as the week moves along.
Week 11 NFL Teaser: Giants + Cowboys Moneyline (+102) at FanDuel
