The 5-4 Ball State Cardinals travel to the Glass Bowl to take on the 6-3 Toledo Rockets on Tuesday night. Ball State is coming off a road win at Kent State last weekend. The victory puts them at 4-1 over their last five games. That’s a red hot stretch after they started the season 1-3.
The Cardinals face a tough task this week against a Toledo team that is undefeated at home on the year. The recent form of both teams offers a lot to analyze to make the best prediction and picks in this one.
After reading this analysis and tailing the bets, check out our OddsShopper tool to find the best lines on the game at sportsbooks across the industry. Now let’s dive in.
College Football Odds: Ball State-Toledo Odds
Ball State’s attack put 27 points up on the road against Kent State last Tuesday. They have scored 104 points over their last four conference games. That being said, the Cardinals’ offense hasn’t shown much consistency this season, as they are sitting at a lowly 90th in the FBS in points per game.
Ball State’s strength of schedule of 118th out of 131 teams doesn’t give them much excuse either. That’s not to say they don’t have talent though.
RB Carson Steele is an absolute stud for this team. He’s totaled 1,082 rushing yards through 9 games so far. Steele chips in the passing game as well, catching twenty balls on the season. Steele has a combined 10 touchdowns on the ground and through the air. Overall, he has been a workhorse back for this team.
Unfortunately, starting QB John Paddock hasn’t been as impressive this season. If Ball State is going to have success against Toledo they will probably have to avoid relying too heavily on the signal caller. Luckily, Toledo’s weakness is their run defense, as they have allowed 158 yards per game and 2.1 rushing touchdowns per game already. If Paddock can manage the game and Steele can take over, Ball State can really exploit the Rockets’ defensive front.
Toledo’s rushing attack is key
Toledo’s key strength offensively is on the ground. For Toledo to come out on top in this one it will be on the back of starting dual-threat QB DeQuan Finn. He has 1,637 passing yards and a team-high 520 rushing yards on the season. He has found paydirt through the air or on the ground 26 times so gar this year. Finn missed Toledo’s last game with an injury and his status is uncertain as of this writing. If he plays he must be accounted for as he is the key to the team’s offense.
The rushing attack is boosted by starting RB Jacquez Stuart, who has 516 yards on the ground and a solid 6.1 yards-per-carry average. His success, and Irons too, can be attributed to the four upperclassmen on Toledo’s offensive line.
Like Ball State, Toledo’s strength of schedule has been weak. That’s something to keep an eye of out for as they face a difficult opponent in this one.
Schedule’s aside, the story in this game will be the rushing attacks of both squads. Expect both schools to grind it out on the ground.
Final Ball State-Toledo Prediction and Pick
Toledo is 3-1 ATS as a home favorite this season and 3-2 ATS in conference games. Their dominance at home has been proven all season long, and with the Cardinals 2-2 as the road team, the Rockets seem like the better play here.
Finn has been more reliable this season than Paddock. Toledo also averages fewer penalty yards and have a better turnover margin than Ball State. Those are two aspects of this game that could easily decide which school covers.
I’d back the Rockets here.
Final Ball State-Toledo Prediction: Toledo -11.5 (-110) at BetMGM | Playable to -12.5 (+100)
