Welcome to the tenth edition of NFL Confidence Pool Picks. Each week will see a ranking of games based on attributed points determined by the number of games. With 14 games this week, games will be ranked from 14 points down to 1 point — the higher the number, the more confident the play. The Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, New England Patriots and New York Jets are on bye week.
Some early strategies in the confidence pool center around shorting heavier favorites or bumping up tighter favorites. Most underdogs will be lower-confidence plays because leverage isn’t truly gained by picking upsets, but rather by the positioning of favorites.
All moneyline and NFL betting odds are pulled from OddsShopper.
Any * denotes an upset.
Week 10 NFL Confidence Pool Picks & Rankings
- Dallas Cowboys (-210) vs. Green Bay Packers
The only people who are left on the Packers train are those still waiting for this big turnaround from Aaron Rodgers. It’s not happening, not this week, not against a Cowboys team fresh off a bye. The Boys are still in the hunt for the NFC East while the Packers are looking to the future. This is the safest result on the board.
- Las Vegas Raiders (-240) vs. Indianapolis Colts
Things have gone from worse to worst for the Colts after firing Frank Reich. The team has an interim coach that’s never coached a game before in the NFL going against a Raiders team that’s desperate to end a two-game skid. Not even the Raiders can get in their own way in this game, as the Colts will do everything in their power to hand Vegas the win.
- Atlanta Falcons (-150) at Carolina Panthers
This is a great way to fade most of the field by bumping up Thursday Night Football. The Panthers continue to make coaching changes, and now expect Baker Mayfield back in the fold. He takes over an offense worse than before against the third highest scoring team in the NFC. The Falcons dropped a tough one last week, but their run-first offense should travel well on a short week.
- New York Giants (-275) vs. Houston Texans
The Texans return after a disappointing loss last Thursday to the Eagles. While the score was closer, it never felt like the Texans were truly in that game. Expect the same feeling at MetLife Stadium. The Giants are hoping this newfound success can erase awful history as home favorites, especially under Daniel Jones. The good news is that they just need to beat the worst team in the NFL.
- Miami Dolphins (-195) vs. Cleveland Browns
The Dolphins are coming in hot following their third straight victory – beating the elements and the Bears on the road. They are just one of three teams in the AFC with a winning record and negative point differential, taking on a Browns team coming off a win then their bye. Cleveland has a knack for keeping games close but need a healthy offense – including TE David Njoku – to compete with the firepower in South Beach.
- Kansas City Chiefs (-425) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Doug Pederson spent years on the sidelines with Andy Reid as he watched the current Chiefs coach build game plans each week. While he didn’t coach while Patrick Mahomes was there, he knows this team’s tendencies on offense. That’s why the Chiefs drop this week, limiting the damage in the event the Jaguars pull off a not-so-shocking upset this week.
- Philadelphia Eagles (-490) vs. Washington Commanders
The Commanders made some changes on both sides of the ball about four weeks ago and it’s paid off until last week. Falling short with a last second loss shouldn’t derail this team despite a juggernaut of an opponent. The Commanders under Ron Rivera are better on the road and stand a good chance of limiting time of possession for the Eagles. The Commanders won’t sneak up on their division rival but will certainly make this one a game.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-135) vs. Seattle Seahawks*
Play the coaches here. Upsets usually don’t bump this high in confidence pools, but it’s a risk that can counter the majority of the field. The only caveat is there truly needs to be an angle or something that validates this high of a confident pick. In this case it’s coaching and travel. This is a road game for both teams as they play in Germany, the Seahawks are 3-2 and the Bucs 2-2. Pete Carroll is leading his team to a Coach of the Year award while the Bucs should be looking for a replacement.
- Buffalo Bills (-250) vs. Minnesota Vikings
The heavily favored Bills should continue to drop as news continues to come out regarding Josh Allen’s elbow injury. He’s either not playing or will play through a reported injury to his UCL, not good either way for a Bills team that was humiliated by the Jets. Minnesota stands to take full advantage of a weakened Bills offense that’s already dealing with a non-existent run game. The Vikings just need to continue to outscore their secondary.
- San Francisco 49ers (-295) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are an interesting case-study in this year’s NFL. They sit at 5-3 with a negative-22 point differential, and a 3-1 record on the road. This seems like a giant ask to lay -295 on a 49ers team that’s barely holding on to a .500 record. There’s certainly a home field advantage for San Francisco – 2-1 at home – but the Chargers are too good to ignore, they just aren’t healthy.
- Chicago Bears (-150) vs. Detroit Lions
One of these bad teams has found something in their quarterback and is starting to show some immediate signs of improvement. The other team is Detroit. It’s just not going to happen much more for these Lions, and while there’s only a half game that separates these two, Sunday will prove how wide the gap truly is. The Lions went from scoring a lot but also giving up a lot to just giving up a lot, Packers aside.
- Tennessee Titans (-146) vs. Denver Broncos
The Titans aren’t necessarily worse with a healthy Malik Willis compared to a banged-up Ryan Tannehill. Taking the Chiefs to OT this past week wasn’t easy but should give the Titans as much momentum as they can from a loss. The Broncos still boast one of the stingiest defenses in the NFL, and maybe – just maybe – they figured out something on offense.
- New Orleans Saints (-145) at Pittsburgh Steelers*
The Saints are just a bad football team and it’s clear that nothing is going to pull them out of any tailspin. There are no easy games for this team, as they are just coming into the realization that they aren’t good. The Steelers are well aware of how bad things are, but still get the benefit of coaching here. Mike Tomlin has won a Super Bowl; Dennis Allen is 10-31 SU as a favorite or dog of fewer than 10 points. Don’t be shocked when the Steelers mildly upset the Saints.
- Los Angeles Rams (-164) vs. Arizona Cardinals*
There is finally a team more despondent than the Buccaneers – the Rams. As bad as things are for Brady and Rodgers, Matthew Stafford is doing just as poorly. Unfortunately for Arizona, they are just as awful and prone to making mistakes as this week’s opponent. This game is awful and should be avoided at all costs. Side with the underdog because, at this point, Kyler Murray still has a pulse.
