The New York Giants have gone an exception 5-1 to start the year, likely a record that few saw coming. Last week’s comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens proved that this team can contend against the NFL’s best, even if it requires a bit of luck. They’ll face the 2-4 Jacksonville Jaguars this week on the heels of the Jaguars’ near-sweep of the Indianapolis Colts. Despite their inferior record, the Jaguars are favored in the NFL odds. Bettors should head to FanDuel and DraftKings Sportsbooks to tail these Giants-Jaguars predictions and picks.
NFL Odds: Giants-Jaguars Odds
Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones Looking Good So Far
The New York Giants have engineered one of the NFL's weirdest offenses. The unit ranks a respectable 13th in offensive defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) but ranks only 22nd in yards per play (5.1). New York has relied almost entirely on Saquon Barkley. The star running back leads the NFL in scrimmage yards with 771, 52 more yards than the next-best player, Tyreek Hill. Barkley also leads the NFL in touches by 12. Behind Barkley, the Giants have gotten the next-most scrimmage yards from quarterback Daniel Jones, who ranks 115th in the metric. Only the Tennessee Titans, who have played just five games, have fewer players ranked in the top 115.
Barkley has done all this with minimal support from his offensive line. The unit ranks a mediocre 17th in adjusted line yards and 22nd in run-block win rate. Left tackle Andrew Thomas owns an elite PFF grade of 90.2, but only one of his fellow starters, right guard Mark Glowinski, owns a grade above 57. Right tackle Evan Neal and center Jon Feliciano own grades below 50. Barkley has managed to get 2.6 yards before contact per attempt (YBC/A), although his teammate, Matt Breida, has gotten only 1.5 YBC/A.
Quarterback Daniel Jones has been solid when called upon. He has completed 67.3% of his passes, which ranks fourth, but for only 5.14 net yards per attempt (NY/A), which ranks 31st among 34 quarterbacks with at least 80 passing attempts. New York's poor pass blocking has allowed Jones to face pressure on 31.8% of his dropbacks, an NFL high, and he has taken 19 sacks. Jones has completed a solid 42.5% of his passes under pressure, which ranks 13th.
New York's defense isn't great but has been trending up. Leonard Williams and Kayvon Thibodeaux's returns have given New York a boost in the trenches. Thibodeaux even earned the game-sealing strip-sack of Lamar Jackson just last week. While the Giants still rank only 30th in defensive DVOA and 23rd in yards allowed per play, the unit should improve slightly moving forward. However, the Giants blitz an NFL-high 42.5% of the time, so they could be vulnerable to runs and screen passes. New York ranks 23rd in yards allowed per rush attempt (5.8) and 28th in rushing yards allowed to running backs per game (117.8). Let's dive deeper with our Giants-Jaguars prediction.
Jaguars Better Than Their Record Suggests
At 2-4, the Jacksonville Jaguars have played a bit better than their record suggests. Jacksonville ranks eighth in total DVOA behind its 11th-ranked offense and 10th-ranked defense. Turnovers have cursed the Jaguars this year, as the team ranks tied for 22nd in giveaways per game (1.5), most of which have come from sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
Aside from his fumbling issues, Lawrence has been efficient this year. He has completed 65.5% of his passes, which ranks 15th, for 6.23 NY/A, which ranks 14th. Lawrence ranks sixth in on-target throw percentage (79.7%) but has seen his receivers drop 7.1% of his throws, which ranks seventh. Lawrence has benefited from solid offensive line play and has faced pressure on just 18.7% of his dropbacks, which is all the more important because Lawrence has completed only 24% of his passes under pressure.
In the running game, Jacksonville has started to pivot away from James Robinson and toward Travis Etienne. The shift makes sense, as Etienne ranks 26th among 39 eligible backs in rushing defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) while Robinson ranks just 38th. Robinson's snap share has been on a downward trend since Week 2. Etienne has racked up 100-plus scrimmage yards over the last two weeks.
Jacksonville's defense ranks a solid ninth in yards allowed per play (5.2). The team has fared much better against the run than the pass, as it ranks third in yards allowed per rush attempt (3.6) and rushing yards allowed per game (89.3). That said, opposing rushers have successfully gotten involved in the passing game -- Jacksonville has allowed the second-most receiving yards per game to running backs (55.3). Let's get to our Giant-Jaguars prediction.
Final Giants-Jaguars Prediction & Pick
Look for both teams to get their running backs heavily involved on Sunday. With the Giants allowing so many yards to opposing rushers on the ground, backing Travis Etienne to have a solid day feels sharp Bettors should play his rushing and receiving total for a bit of extra security -- Etienne is yet to get more than 13 carries in a game, but he has averaged 11.2 touches and 74.3 scrimmage yards per game. Further, New York's blitz-heavy scheme makes dump-off passes to Etienne that much likelier, especially because of Etienne's 43.3% route participation rate.
Giants running back Saquon Barkley should also get heavily involved. Barkley leads the NFL in scrimmage yards and has done plenty through the air. Barkley has averaged 3.5 receptions for 25.8 receiving yards per game this season, right around the total DraftKings has posted for him.
Final Giants-Jaguars Pick: Travis Etienne Over 68.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-114) at FanDuel
Final Giants-Jaguars Pick: Saquon Barkley Props: Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at DraftKings
Giants-Jaguars OddsShopper Model Prediction
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