One of the biggest parts of being a successful sports bettor is gathering information. But the key is getting the right information and then knowing what to do with it. Figuring out who is betting on what and understanding why is a critical piece of handicapping. That’s especially true in the NFL. This is where knowing the percentage of handle (dollars) compared to bets (amount) comes into play.
The goal of this article is to report on what teams the betting public is most heavily on and then to decide whether or not to follow the “herd” or “fade” them. It will focus on games that have at least 75% of handle or bets. This article’s process went 4-1 last week and is 12-4 on the season.
NFL Week 5 Betting Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays
Titans at Commanders (Titans -1)
Titans -1, Bets 84%, Handle 66%
Neither team in this game has looked great in any game this season, but you could argue that the Washington win at home against the Jaguars looks very good on the resume right now. The Commanders have had to go against stout defenses in the Jaguars, Eagles and Cowboys. They were able to put up points against the Lions, but just about anyone can at this point.
My take is that I never love laying points on the road with a bad team, and the Titans are not a good football team. The injury to Treylon Burks is even more key and this will turn into a slow grind-out type of game.
This game strictly comes down to who I think needs the game more and it is Washington at home. The Titans could be very flat for this non-conference road game as they are 2-2 with another divisional home game against the Colts next week. It won’t be pretty and both teams will struggle to score.
Best Bet – Commanders +1.5 FADE THE PUBLIC
Seahawks at Saints (Saints -5.5)
Seahawks +5.5, Bets 77%, Handle 77%
Over my 30 years or so of betting on sports, I have learned that you can never trust a road dog that is a public play. But in this case, we have equal distribution on both the handle and bets, so it is both a sharp and public play. On paper, you think how can the Saints be this much of a favorite against anyone, but you have to take into consideration all of the injuries they have dealt with.
We have seen this with several teams this year, the Cardinals, Colts and Bucs, where they just can not do anything on offense because of it. As of Friday morning, it looks like Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas will not play Sunday, but Jarvis Landry and Alvin Kamara will. I’m ok with that because of the emergence of Chris Olave, and the difference between Winston and Dalton is minimal.
One thing we do know is that the Saints’ defense is significantly better than the Seahawks and I think that is where the key is. The Seahawks are due for a stinker of a game and you get that West Coast team traveling all the way east for a 1 p.m. start angle.
Best Bet – Saints -5.5 FADE THE PUBLIC
49ers at Panthers (49ers -6.5)
49ers -6.5, Bets 79%, Handle 84%
The 49ers have the best defense in football and rank No. 1 in DVOA. The Panthers rank No. 12 so we are looking at a very low-scoring game. The 49ers have gone under in all four games, while the Panthers have gone under in three out of four.
The Panthers’ offense is a complete mess with Baker Mayfield and Ben McAdoo being the most to blame. The questionable play calling and lack of execution have been on display all year, and now they get the best defense in the NFL. The West coast team traveling east is not as much of a factor as this game is playing at 4:25 p.m. ET. We could be looking at a very dominating performance from this Niners’ defense and I would not be surprised if they posted a defensive touchdown.
If this number hits seven, I would stay away from it as I am expecting it to be a very low-scoring game. I like it to be 20-6 or 20-9 in favor of the 49ers, but if something funny happens late in the game and the Panthers backdoor a touchdown or get a defensive touchdown, it could spoil things (a 20-6 game could turn into 20-13, etc).
Best Bet – 49ers -6.5 FOLLOW THE PUBLIC
Raiders at Chiefs (Chiefs -7)
Chiefs -7, Bets 77% Handle 85%
Your classic deli “sandwich” game here with the Chiefs coming off a huge Sunday night win on the road against the Buccaneers, and with the Bills and 49ers up after this home game against divisional rival the Raiders. I can see the Chiefs coming in flat for this game and letting the Raiders hang around.
The whole world saw the Chiefs put up 41 points against the Bucs’ vaunted defense and the public money shows at 77%, but this is also a team that laid an egg against the Colts, while the Raiders got their first win of the season at home against the Broncos.
The Chiefs spanked the Raiders both times last year 48-9 and 41-14. But remember all of the turmoil surrounding the Raiders last year, so in 2021 the scores were 35-31 and 40-32 (Raiders win). I think we see a result closer to 2021 this time around.
Remember, we don’t need the Raiders to win, just to COVER. I can see this being 33-27 Chiefs with a backdoor cover by Las Vegas.
Best Bet – Raiders +7 FADE THE PUBLIC
