Week 5 in the NFL has seen few drastic line movements with no more than two points of separation in any one matchup from when the spreads opened. Though public reluctance from hammering a particular team is evident, weekend line movement creeps up quick which is where we’ll look to capitalize in advance here.
Each week in this article we’ll identify the largest point spread movements between Monday through Friday to estimate why they’ve happened and any edge that may be available before further movement occurs heading into the weekend. Utilizing the FREE tools at OddsShopper we’re able to dial in on when the line movements have occurred and identify the best odds available to pounce on before the weekend movement ensues.
With some intriguing matchups awaiting in Week 5 let’s take a closer look at where some of the greatest line movements have happened throughout the week.
Weekly NFL Betting Line Movement Today: Expert Betting Picks 10/7
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Game Time: Sunday 10/9, 1:00 pm ET, Raymond James Stadium
Opening Line: ATL +8.0 (-110)
Current Line: ATL +10.0 (-110)
The Atlanta Falcons (2-2) venture to Raymond James Stadium to battle their NFC South Division rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) after winning two straight weeks to reach a .500 record. The betting lines opened with Atlanta as 8-point underdogs on Monday morning and since drifted two points in favor of the Bucs. With 70% of the bets coming in on Tampa Bay, a first reaction would be to the injuries recently sustained by Atlanta on offense while Tampa is getting healthier at key positions and having dropped their first two games at home.
Atlanta recently put its multi-talent scatter back Cordarrelle Patterson on injured reserve while tight end Kyle Pittshas missed practice due to a hamstring injury this week and won’t play Sunday. The Buccaneers receiving corps has seen the return of Chris Godwin while Julio Jones and Russell Gage have been limited in practice this week. With potentially all of their top receivers back, the Bucs face an Atlanta defense allowing 175 yards per game to the position.
Falcons at Buccaneers Lean
Though movement is shifting toward the Buccaneers, Atlanta remains 4-0 against the spread and have played each of its games within four points or less. A bounce-back spot for the Buccaneers at home feels right, yet 10 points is quite the cover against a resilient Falcons team despite the injuries. With Tampa now pushing double digits, Atlanta getting 10 points is enticing.
Detroit Lions at New England Patriots
Game Time: Sunday 10/9, 1:00 pm ET, Gillette Stadium
Opening Line: DET +2.0 (-109)
Current Line: DET +3.5 (-113)
A battle of two 1-3 teams seeking to right their ways, the Detroit Lions head to Foxboro to face the New England Patriots. The point spread opened with the Lions as 2-point underdogs early Monday, quickly reaching +3 the same day and eking up to +3.5 early Friday. Although 55% of the public bets have been on Detroit, the injury news surrounding the Lions offense has likely impacted the direction this spread is headed through the weekend.
Detroit was hopeful for the returns of D’Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and DJ Chark following their Week 4 absences at the time the betting lines opened. Neither Swift nor St. Brown has practiced all week while Chark has been limited and is questionable to play Sunday. The Patriots are coming off a 27-24 overtime loss to Green Bay that saw the first professional action for third-string rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe with Brian Hoyer concussed during the game and now on injured reserve. Starter Mac Jones has been limited in practice this week though no certainty for game-time on Sunday. New England may also see the return of their top receiver Jakobi Meyers who was also back in practice after missing the past two games.
Lions at Patriots Lean
Detroit is 3-1 ATS this season and played within three points in each of its losses while New England is 1-2-1 ATS. Wait on further line movement in New England’s favor and grab the Lions on the points if it stagnates above the current +3.5.
Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns
Game Time: Sunday 10/9, 1:00 pm ET, FirstEnergy Stadium
Opening Line: LAC -3.0 (-110)
Current Line: LAC -1.5 (-107)
The Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) are coming off a rejuvenated 34-24 win in Houston now heading to FirstEnergy Stadium to square off with the Cleveland Browns (2-2). The point spread opened this week with the Chargers as 3-point favorites on Monday, dwindling from Wednesday to -1.5 early Friday. Over half the bets are on the Browns.
Los Angeles will be without linebacker Joey Bosa for several weeks on injured reserve while tight end Gerald Everett and wide receiver Keenan Allen have been limited in practice this week. Browns’ defensive end Myles Garrett has a great chance of playing this week following his Week 4 absence with shoulder and bicep injuries from a car accident. Tight end Harrison Bryant also returned to practice on Thursday.
Chargers at Browns Lean
While the Chargers managed a 10-point win on the road last week against the Texans, the public hasn’t forgotten the excess of 24 points allowed in each of their past three games. Los Angeles has covered the spread in three of four games this season yet a recovering offensive line and leaky defense lingers as the action has been leaning on Cleveland all week. The Browns’ schedule has been soft as they’re coming off a road loss to Atlanta and having faced the Steelers, Jets, and Panthers prior to that. Booking Los Angeles at -1.5 on weaker juice is a worthwhile value.
