Betting on the NFL early in the week often presents the best opportunity to find value, especially when it comes to totals. Getting the best number available before the odds move is key to becoming a successful bettor. In Week 7, there is a slate of 14 games to look at in the NFL betting odds market.
Below are four of the best NFL bets on the board this week, with a focus on totals. Check out all of the best NFL Week 7 picks, and be sure to use OddsShopper’s NFL line shopping tool when looking for the best value on all of your bets.
Week 7 NFL Picks: Best Bets for Game and Team Totals
Bears-Patriots, (Patriots -8, 40)
The Patriots have allowed just 15 points combined in their last two games, and the Bears rank 31st in scoring — 15.5 points per game. They have scored less than 13 points in three out of six games.
This game is being played on Monday night, and there is rain in the forecast, which will keep scoring at bay.
The Patriots shut out the Lions at home, and this could be a similar result with the Bears. Chicago is dead last in passing offense, so it is unclear what its plan is to move the ball and extend drives. The Patriots will stick with the grind-out game plan with Rhamondre Stevenson.
This game has a 24-6 type of feel to it, with the Patriots defense getting a touchdown.
Best Bet: Bears UNDER 15.5 points
Browns-Ravens (Ravens -6.5, 45.5)
The Ravens are tied for third in first half scoring (15.3 points per game), and the Browns are 19th in first half points allowed (12.0). The Ravens come in with some value because of the blown leads, but their DVOA overall is third (third in offense, 16th in defense), while the Browns are 21st in total DVOA but 31st on defense. The Ravens have been a strong first half offense all year and should be able to push the ball quickly on this Browns defense at home. One of the key metrics to look at for first half scoring is team points per play, in which the Ravens rank second behind the Chiefs and ahead of the Bills. Also look at points per play margin, which factors in defense, and the Ravens are fourth in the NFL while the Browns are 28th.
Best Bet: Ravens OVER 13.5 First Half
Buccaneers-Panthers (Buccaneers -11, 40)
The Panthers have been in turmoil all year, and they cannot score on offense, hence the under picks on them all year. Expect more of the same this week with their third quarterback in Jacob Eason against divisional rival Tampa Bay, who should be seething after a terrible road loss to the Steelers. Even if P.J. Walker or Baker Mayfield start, both are not 100%.
The Panthers rank dead last in offensive DVOA, and their defense has accounted for three touchdowns, so their actual offensive average is just 14.1 points per game. The Buccaneers rank fourth in defensive DVOA and have held five out of six opponents to 18 points or less.
Best Bet: Panthers UNDER 13.5
