The Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints have been two of the NFL’s most disappointing teams this year. Fans hoping for fireworks from Derek Carr and Davante Adams have been treated to a 2-4 record. Likewise, those excited about a healthy Jameis Winston have a 2-5 team led by Andy Dalton to root for. A quick look at the NFL odds reveals that the Raiders are slight road favorites for Sunday’s matchup. Bettors should head to FanDuel Sportsbook to tail these Raiders-Saints picks and predictions — or check out our OddsShopper tool to find value elsewhere.
NFL Odds: Raiders-Saints Odds
Raiders Playing Better Than Record Suggests
The Raiders probably should have a better record, but at least they're no longer the worst team in the AFC West. Having a bye week to regroup after a 2-4 start should help Las Vegas get set for a winnable Week 8 matchup. The Raiders rank a solid 19th in defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) and are well above average in expected points added (EPA) per play.
Las Vegas' offense has played well. The Raiders rank seventh in yards per play (6) and third in yards per rush attempt (5.4). Running back Josh Jacobs has run for 105.5 yards per game behind the offensive line, which ranks first in adjusted line yards and fourth in run-block win rate.
Quarterback Derek Carr also ranks 12th among 35 quarterbacks with at least 100 passing attempts in net yards per attempt (NY/A) with 6.45. That said, Carr is yet to take the step forward some expected him to this year. His deep-ball completion percentage (25.9%) ranks 32nd, and his completion percentage under pressure (37.8%) ranks 21st. He ranks just 30th in accuracy rating.
The Raiders would have a better record if their defense were more consistent. The Raiders rank 27th in defensive DVOA and 23rd in yards allowed per play (5.8). Although the defensive front ranks seventh in yards allowed per rush attempt (4.1) and eighth in rushing yards allowed per game (104), the secondary ranks 26th in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.2) and 27th in passing yards allowed per game (262.7). The Raiders added Chandler Jones to their pass rush in the offseason, but they have generated pressure on only 18.6% of dropbacks, which ranks 28th. Still, opposing passers have often dumped off to their running backs -- the Raiders have given up the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (55). Let's look New Orleans portion of our Raiders-Saints prediction.
Saints Committing to Dalton -- and Mediocrity
The New Orleans Saints have committed to quarterback Andy Dalton despite Jameis Winston getting healthy -- and despite Dalton's two pick-sixes on Thursday Night Football. The decision makes sense -- Dalton has been more accurate than Winston, has netted more yards per attempt than Winston and has thrown interceptions less often than Winston. That said, the Saints probably won't make it to the playoffs by playing it safe and starting Dalton.
Unlike last year, the Saints can no longer lean on their defense. The unit has hemorrhaged talent over the last few seasons and now ranks a lowly 22nd in defensive DVOA and 18th in yards allowed per play. Notable departures over the last few years include Sheldon Rankins, Marcus Williams, Malcolm Jenkins and Trey Hendrickson. With Marshon Lattimore still out, this unit will continue to struggle. The secondary has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers (181.5) The Saints currently rank 29th in pressure percentage (17%), which likely explains the defensive falloff.
New Orleans' newfound defensive struggles are especially significant because their offense is getting worse. Sure, rookie wide receiver Chris Olave looks awesome, but Alvin Kamara, Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are all getting older and have already dealt with injuries. Both Thomas and Landry remain out as well. The unit ranks 20th in offensive DVOA despite ranking fifth in yards per play (6.1). The Saints may need to blow up this roster before the trade deadline.
Final Raiders-Saints Prediction & Pick
This would be a sharp game to target Alvin Kamara's receiving props, but with trade rumors circulating about the star running back, the Saints may opt to limit his usage if they get down early. Instead, bettors should target Las Vegas on the moneyline -- the Raiders invested too much in this year's roster to even consider blowing it up.
The Raiders have the better offense, and while their defense hasn't been great, it doesn't need to be for the Raiders to beat the inefficient Saints. New Orleans is a miserable 1-5 when listed as a home underdog since Drew Brees' retirement -- both straight up and against the spread. The books remain too high on New Orleans, so bettors should wager enough on the moneyline to profit a full unit.
Final Raiders-Saints Pick: Raiders Moneyline (-116 for 1.16 Units) at FanDuel
Raiders-Saints OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 8 Raiders-Saints matchup, the model has identified a Saints receiver as a player to fade at his current price.
Betting the under on Marquez Callaway's total receiving yards yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to FanDuel for the best price on the market!
