The San Francisco 49ers are currently tied with the Seattle Seahawks atop of their division at 6-4, and look like contenders to win the NFC. Meanwhile, the New Orleans Saints still have a chance to earn a playoff spot, primarily because of their weak division. At 4-7, the Saints sit one game back of the division leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That makes tomorrow’s game significant for both sides and a good spot to find the best Saints-49ers prediction, odds and pick.
The 49ers have been through adversity all this season as they decided to go with their second year QB Trey Lance over veteran Jimmy Garoppolo to start the season. Unfortunately for the organization, (or fortunately depending how you look at things), Lance went down in the second game of the season and will be on the shelf until next year. The 49ers defense is also one of the top units in the league, but have had rough performances at times when they missing some key players.
The Saints benched their former starter Jameis Winston for the grizzled veteran Andy Dalton. It seems to be the quietest benching the NFL this year, as many analysts are more focused on the likes of Zach Wilson and Russell Wilson. However, the Saints have gone 3-5 since moving to Dalton, although their three wins have come against Seattle, a depleted Raiders team and a shell of the Los Angeles Rams last week. The following analyzes the game with an expert Saints-49ers prediction and picks. For more great bets this NFL Week 12 check out our OddShopper tools and content.
NFL Odds: Saints-49ers Odds
Saints: +9 (-110)
49ers: -9 (-110)
Moneyline: Saints (+360); 49ers (-450)
Over/Under: 43 (-110)
Can the Saints Keep the Momentum Going?
Andy Dalton has thrown at least one touchdown in all seven games this season and he has added seven interceptions in those games. When looking at DVOA statistics for this team, it is not pretty. The Saints essentially mirror the production of the Pittsburgh Steelers, expect that New Orleans has the better running game.
The Saints rank 23rd in total DVOA for the season, and are bottom third in the league in every category except for their rushing DVOA. They are averaging 22.6 points per game, but have scored 14 or fewer points in four of their 11 games this year. The Saints will continue to be without top WR Michael Thomas which adds fuel to their offensive woes.
The San Francisco 49ers defense will be the best unit on the field in this game. They are 7th ranked in DVOA defense and are top 10 in every category this year. The defense is also almost all healthy, which was a struggle in the middle portion of the year when they struggled against the Atlanta Falcons.
This unit has allowed just 17.3 points per game which is third best in the NFL. Not only that, they have allowed the least amount of rushing yards on average against, which is the best part of the Saints attack. They also have at least two sacks in every game this season except for their one game against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in week 7.
The Saints are averaging over an interception a game and allowing over two sacks per game so I am expecting the San Francisco’s defense to be feasting in this Saints-49ers matchup.
Jimmy G Playing Serviceable for 49ers
Considering no team made a move to acquire Jimmy Garoppolo in the offseason after the 49ers made it clear they would be going with Trey Lance, it seems like many teams missed a great opportunity. The 49ers have gone 6-3 since Garoppolo took over under center, but the big jump came after the team acquired star RB Christian McCaffrey at the deadline.
While the 49ers did lose their first game with McCaffrey, they have won three straight since that loss and are 3-1 with the superstar. However, McCaffrey’s role with this team is a little murky because of the return of RB Eli Mitchell. McCaffrey saw just seven carries for 39 yards last week in the win against the Cardinals, while Mitchell received 9 carries for 59 yards. Mitchell also out carried McCaffrey in his Week 10 return 18-14.
The biggest impact McCaffrey has had on this team is in the passing game. Taking out his first game as a 49er because of limited snaps, McCaffrey has 19 receptions on 22 targets for 161 yards since joining the team. In those three games, TE George Kittle has just eight receptions on 13 targets.
The Saints defensive unit has had its ups and downs this season. They currently rank 15th in total defense DVOA, but are worse against the rush. That is not good against a team like the 49ers who can run the ball down anyone’s throat with ease.
The Saints have been good at getting to the QB, which is evident with their 32 sacks this season. Still, they just have not been able to put it all together defensively. They have done great at limiting TEs this year, but are getting torched by wide receivers and running backs.
Final Saints-49ers Prediction & Pick:
The Saints have been a roller coaster ride all year with low points losing to the Steelers and Panthers, and the high points being shutting out the Raiders and beating the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams (which really isn’t that impressive considering the Rams are 3-7 this year).
The Saints are just 1-3 on the road this year with their only win coming at Atlanta in Week 1 where they needed a last second field goal to win by one. The 49ers on the other hand seem to be hitting their stride. They are coming off a 38-10 win against Arizona in Mexico last week and are 3-1 at home this year.
The 49ers moneyline is definitely too wide to play as a one off but I do love it as a parlay piece this week. I also see some value on the 49ers laying the -9 at home, but favorites over 3.5 points this season have been one of the worst bets of the year.
While I do see ways of getting to the 49ers in moneyline parlays and teasers to get to a much better line, the bet I will be focusing most of my attention on this week is the George Kittle receptions prop. Since the addition of McCaffrey, Kittle has been used less because McCaffrey is getting more short range targets. Kittle has not gone over this 4.5 receptions total in any game since the addition of McCaffrey and has only gone over this number three times all season. There is some juice to pay, but there are various ways to include this prop into your bets for Sunday.
Final Saints-49ers Pick: George Kittle Under 4.5 Receptions (-175)
