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Saints Super Bowl Odds Shift as They Near Deal With Derek Carr

Looks like the NFL quarterback carousel is ready to get spinning. NFL Network reporter Mike Garafolo tweeted this morning that the Saints and former Raiders quarterback Derek Carr are close to finalizing a deal and that he is all but confirmed to be in a Saints jersey in 2023. Ian Rapoport reported it as a four-year deal and implied the price projects to be hefty.

With quarterback openings in key spots across the league and the NFL Draft taking place next month, Carr’s signing is the first of a suspected series of quarterback moves in the coming weeks. It has also quite drastically shifted the Saints Super Bowl odds for this season.

Saints Super Bowl Odds: Derek Carr Close to New Orleans Deal

David/Derek typo from Garafolo aside, Carr to the Saints has been a strong possibility for a couple weeks now. As a result, the Saints were at +4000 to win the Super Bowl prior to today. But with the news that a deal is close to done with Carr, New Orleans has shot up a bit to +3000 on Caesars, tied with the Browns, Jets and Lions for the 10th-best odds in the NFL. Check out the rest of the top 10 below:

New Orleans already had the best Super Bowl odds in the NFL South, but now it has drastically distanced itself from the division rivals — no other NFL South team has odds better than +6000. The Saints are also now fourth among NFC teams, likely due to the fact that they are overwhelmingly the favorites from their division. Only the 49ers, Eagles and Cowboys have better Super Bowl odds in the conference at the moment.

Carr is coming off his worst season in several years, failing to eclipse 4,000 yards passing for the first time since 2017. He also led the Raiders to a disappointing 6-9 record in his starts. Prior to 2022, however, he put up strong volume numbers, throwing for 4,804 yards and leading the Raiders to the postseason last season. Plus, the AFC West was one of the tougher divisions in the NFL last year, and Carr still led Las Vegas to a 3-3 division record — not spectacular, but not awful either.

Now he gets to go to perhaps the worst division in the NFL. The Saints fell just shy of the division title in 2022, finishing 7-10 and one game back of the Buccaneers. And that came with a myriad of quarterback issues and perennial backup Andy Dalton starting 14 games. New Orleans went 9-8 the year prior with an equal split of pass attempts between Trevor Siemian, Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill. Presumably, the steady Carr will prove an upgrade over all four of those quarterbacks and makes New Orleans an obvious playoff contender, if for no other reason beyond the extremely weak NFC South.

The Super Bowl may be a stretch, but Carr and the Saints project to have a fairly easy road to the postseason, something that no team in the NFC East or NFC North can say.

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