It’s Week 7 and this article is going to bring a preview of the Texans – Raiders prediction and odds in what should be an interesting game out in Las Vegas. The Raiders are 1-4 while the Texans are 1-3-1.
For each team, a win moves them one step closer out of last place. For the Raiders, the Broncos are 2-4 and they are tied in the loss column with them. For the Texans, Jacksonville is 2-4 and they are just half a game behind them. Both are going to want the win and both teams are going to feel like his is a winnable game!
Let’s dive into the matchup and see what could happen! Be sure to check out our OddsShopper tool for more bets.
Texans – Raiders Prediction and Odds
The Raiders Are Coming Off A Bye Week
The Raiders headed into the bye week with a heartbreaker. They were up 17-0 on Kansas City before blowing the lead and losing 30-29. The question people want to know is how will they respond coming off the bye week.
The Raiders are 3-16 since 2003 after the bye week. That is over the course of nearly 20 years and several different head coaches. While this likely more noise than actual data to go off of, this is a statistic that a recreational bettor can find and may use in their own process.
Looking at statistics that matter, this is how the Raiders are looking:
Offensively, the Raiders' Pass DVOA is the 23rd-best in the league. Their Rush DVOA is 8th-best in the league. At the start of the season, the Raiders were top of the league in pass play percentage. Now they have dropped to the ninth highest.
When the Raiders pass the ball, Davante Adams is the top target by far. He has 54 targets and a 31.3% target share on the team. Adams is averaging 82.8 targets per game, 14.3 yards per reception, and has five touchdowns in the five games played this season.
When the Raiders run the ball, it's all Josh Jacobs. He has 91 of the 115 rushing attempts on the team. He is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and has scored three touchdowns in the five games played so far. In today's NFL, averaging 18.2 carries per game is a workload. He has the third-highest opportunity share among running backs this season.
Defensively, the Raiders are not a good team. Their Pass DVOA is 30th best in the league while their Rush DOVA is 15th best in the league. This was evident in letting Kansas City come all the way back to win.
If the Raiders are going to win games, they are going to have to play against teams that are offensively inept, such as their win against Denver. Otherwise, they are going to struggle, as they have shown against the Chargers, Cardinals, Titans, and Chiefs.
The Texans Are Looking To Turn Things Around Too
Like the Raiders, the Texans are coming off a bye week as well. Unlike the Raiders, they won their game going into the bye and are looking to build off of that positive momentum. Can they do it?
Offensively, Houston's Pass DVOA is 28th-best and their Rush DVOA is 25th-best. Not good.
When they do pass the ball, Brandin Cooks is the target leader with a 25.7% target share. The downside to Cooks is that he is averaging just 9.8 yards per reception. His 8.4 aDOT is 74th among wide receivers in the league. Nico Collins (16.6% target share) and Rex Burkhead (14.7% target share) are the other significant targets in this passing offense.
When the Texans run the ball, it is Dameon Pierce taking the bulk of the work with 74.8% of the teams' carriers. He is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has three rushing touchdowns in the five games played so far. Rex Burkhead has 20 carries in the five games, but he is out there more in passing situations and isn't a real threat to Pierce unless the game script is negative for them.
Defensively, Houston's Pass DVOA is 16th-best in the league while their Rush DVOA is 29th-best in the league.
Texans vs. Raiders Prediction
This is a matchup that is ideal for the Raiders. Offensively, they have the eighth-best Rush DVOA and are facing the defense with the 29th-best Rush DVOA in the league. The Raiders' defensive Pass DVOA is 30th in the league, but they are facing an offense with the 16th-best Pass DVOA in the league.
The Raiders are rightfully favored in this one. They run it well and play a bad run defense. They are poor at stopping the pass, but are playing an offense that is average at best at passing the ball.
Looking at the OddsShopper Sharp Sportsbook Lines, the best the first quarter point spread of Raiders -0.5 on FanDuel. This bet has a positive expected ROI of 1% with a 53% chance of winning. Also, the game total OVER 45.5 points is a good bet.
Looking at the Stokastic Model for Player Props, Chris Moore OVER 18.5 Receiving Yards, Josh Jacobs OVER 81.5 Rushing Yards, and Hunter Renfrow OVER 40.5 Receiving Yards look to be the best bets there.
Best Texans vs. Raiders Bet: Raiders -0.5 Points - First Quarter (-115), FanDuel; OVER 45.5 Points (-110), BetMGM
