Regardless if the game total is high or low, there is always an edge to be had. That is our main focus when talking through this Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets betting preview. Currently the total is set at 38.5 points, which is the lowest of NFL Week 7. The Broncos are are 1-point home favorites as they are finally off the prime time slates.
Would not expect many eyes to be on this game, but there is a betting angle we can attack. With two elite defenses and two inept quarterbacks, the bet kind of writes itself. Let’s dive into the Broncos-Jets prediction and picks. Be sure to check out more bets using our OddsShopper tool.
NFL Odds: Broncos-Jets Predictions, Picks
Finally off of Prime Time
After getting humiliated on prime time yet again, the Denver Broncos find themselves back in the Sunday afternoon slot. Four of the Broncos' first six games were on prime time and they averaged 13 points per game. Quite a show quarterback Russell Wilson and this offense has put on for the viewing audience. Wilson has been ruled out of Sunday's matchup and backup Brett Rypien will start.
What a brutal start to the season so far for the Broncos. They have averaged an NFL-low 15.2 points per game this season and have scored one touchdown in their last 26 drives. It should be no surprise that the Broncos rank 27th in offensive DVOA and Pass DVOA, which is another indication of how bad Wilson has been. He was questionable with a hamstring injury, but after a limited practice it seems like he will be good to go this week, which may not be a good thing.
Through the first six weeks, Wilson has posted a career-low QBR, quarterback rating, and completion percentage. It seems like only a matter of time until he loses this locker room, if he hasn't already. The wide receiving core of Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy isn't all that bad, but they are being brought down considerably with Wilson under center. Sutton leads the aerial attack in receptions, targets, and yards.
The Broncos have one rushing touchdown from a running back and that was Melvin Gordon from 1 yard out. He got benched last week as head coach Nathaniel Hackett decided to go with veteran Latavius Murray, who was signed a week prior. Who knows what Hackett will do this week as they try to find any productivity with Javonte Williams out for the year. One would think the Broncos need to establish the run more with how bad Wilson has been, but there isn't a lot of talent in this backfield, and the Jets rank 12th in Rush DVOA this season.
Rookie tight end Greg Dulcich may give this offense the spark it needs. Dulcich caught a 39-yard touchdown last week in his first NFL game, which is a good sign of things to come. However, overall it is extremely difficult to trust this offense.
Are the New York Jets Good?
The Jets have won three straight games now that quarterback Zach Wilson is back under center and their 4-2 record is tied for the second-best in the AFC. That matches their best start through six games since 2010. These two teams are going in opposite directions as the Jets have averaged over 30 points per game during the last three.
The last two times the Jets have traveled to Mile High Stadium in Denver, they have been outscored 49-0. Both teams look very different from those two matchups, but it is worth considering seeing how well this Broncos team plays at home. Their defense ranks second in DVOA and first in Pass DVOA through the first six weeks. The Broncos held Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert without a passing touchdown for just the second time in his career last game.
Luckily for the Jets, most of their production has come from the running game that features rookie Breece Hall and second-year pro Michael Carter. They have really ramped up the touches for Hall, who has increased his workload in each of the last five weeks with a career-high 22 touches against the Packers last week. Carter only had seven touches last week, but was around 11 and 12 the previous four weeks. Expect both to get a heavy workload this week with Hall leading the way.
As expected with the Broncos defense, this Jets passing attack won't be utilized too much. Garrett Wilson leads the Jets in target share and receptions, and Corey Davis leads them in receiving yards. With so many equal wide receivers, it will be tough for stud defensive back Patrick Surtain to pick a wide receiver to blanket. Surtain held Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams to two catches for 17 yards. This will be a very balanced Jets passing attack.
In his first season with the Jets, tight end Tyler Conklin has a career-high 13.8% target share, but had three targets in the last two games. Wilson is going to struggle against this Broncos defense, which ranks sixth in defensive pressure rate. He has a very low 3.0 passer rating under pressure this season. Expect the Jets' scoring to come to a screeching halt in this matchup.
Broncos-Jets Prediction and Pick
With two absolutely great defenses and playing at Mile High, the under 38.5 points feels too easy. Yes, the total is extremely low, but let's break it down. The Broncos have scored 15.2 points per game as previously mentioned, while allowing only 16.5. They also rank tied for fourth in sacks. For the Jets, they rank top 5 in pressure this season as C.J. Mosley, Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner have been absolute game-changers.
The Wilson quarterbacks have combined to average 223.8 passing yards per game and a 41.7 quarterback rating in the nine games they've started. Each is well under a 60% completion rate for the season, and with how incredible these defenses have been to start the season, it's hard to expect many points to be put on the board.
Through six games, the Broncos are playing at the 24th slowest pace, and five of their last six games have gone under the total. Shouldn't be a surprise with everything that has been mentioned. This game features the lowest total of the week, and we'll gladly take the under. Bet this down to 37 points at DraftKings.
Best NFL Bet: Game Total Under 38.5 Points (-115) at DraftKings
