The Washington Commanders host the Tennessee Titans as 2.5-point underdogs Sunday. These teams enter this contest in polar opposite forms, with the Titans winning two straight and the Commanders losing three in a row.
Tennessee opened as 2.5-point favorites and it has stayed at that number. As of Friday morning, 84% of the bets and 65% of the handle are on the Titans.
Titans vs. Commanders Week 5 NFL Betting Picks and Predictions
Tennessee’s Secondary Continues to Get Torched
The Titans’ youth at cornerback has proven to be a problem through the first four weeks. Tennessee ranks 25th in the NFL in points allowed per game and 28th in passing yards allowed per game.
Numerous times this season, the Titans secondary has been torched by talented pass catchers. It gave up 85 yards and two touchdowns to Mo Alie-Cox in Week 4, 158 yards and one touchdown to Mack Hollins in Week 3, and 148 yards and three touchdowns to Stefon Diggs in Week 2.
To make matters worse, Tennessee may be without a few of their starting defensive backs on Sunday. Safety Amani Hooker is in concussion protocol and did not practice Thursday. Cornerback Caleb Farley was a limited participant Thursday with a knee injury and is listed as questionable. This secondary has already struggled mightily when the starters are in, so if one or both of these guys do not play they are really in a tough spot.
‘Scary Terry’ Should Shine
Washington has been pass-heavy to start the year (71% of their offensive snaps). Part of this is because they are typically losing, but the other part is that head coach Ron Rivera and this staff trust the offensive weapons to make plays.
Entering Week 5, wide receiver Terry McLaurin is second on the team in targets and could be in store for a bigger workload Sunday. Washington’s other main receiving target, Curtis Samuel (illness), has missed practice, and Johan Dotson (hamstring) has been ruled out.
But Samuel also can’t play, QB Carson Wentz will need to rely heavily on the Commanders’ best wideout.
This game should be a great buy-low opportunity for McLaurin, who was blanketed by Trevon Diggs and the Dallas Cowboys defense last week. In a pass-first offense that could miss a few of its targets going against a terrible secondary, McLaurin should be in store for a big game.
Titans vs. Commanders Prediction
We are going to back McLaurin to find the end zone. Tennessee’s secondary already has its problems, and if is without one or both of Hooker/Farley, they are facing a big problem Sunday.
While I do not trust the Commanders and Wentz all that much, I trust their offensive weapons, specifically McLaurin. Plus, we have volume on our side with the game plan.
Of the 10 touchdowns Washington’s offense has scored this season, eight have been through the air. Ten of the 11 touchdowns this Tennessee defense has given up have been passing touchdowns.
If Hollins can torch this secondary, so can McLaurin.
Titans vs. Commanders Prediction: Terry McLaurin Anytime TD Scorer (+210, FanDuel)
