A packed Week 5 NFL schedule brings plenty of opportunities to ponder on No House Advantage. There are two types of contests to play, “Pick ‘Em” and “Vs. The House.” Let’s try to help narrow the field by highlighting some of the best props to target.
NFL Week 5 Odds and Props: No House Advantage
Dalvin Cook Over 84.5 Rushing Yards
Cook did not end up missing a game with his shoulder injury, rushing 20 times for 76 yards for the Minnesota Vikings in Week 4 against the New Orleans Saints. He’s received at least 17 carries in a game three times this season, and has two performances with at least 90 yards rushing. As talented as backup Alexander Mattison is, the Vikings clearly want to give the ball to Cook as much as possible.
The Bears present a great matchup for Cook to have another productive afternoon on the ground. They have allowed an average of 183.3 yards rushing per game, which is the most in the NFL. Last week, Saquon Barkley torched them for 146 yards on 31 carries for the New York Giants. With Cook expected to receive around 20 carries again, he could blow by this total.
Leonard Fournette Over 63.5 Rushing Yards
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell in a hole early last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, so they had to mostly abandon the running game. Fournette would finish with three carries, which he turned into -3 yards. He was plenty busy in the passing game, though, catching all seven of his targets for 57 yards and a touchdown.
This has the potential to be a very different game script. The Buccaneers are heavy favorites against an Atlanta Falcons team that isn’t nearly as explosive offensively as the Chiefs. The Falcons will be further compromised with RB Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) out. If the Buccaneers race out to an early lead, there could be a lot of Fournette in the second half. He’s received at least 20 carries in a game two times this season, and gained 65 yards rushing both times. The NFL Player Props Tool projects Fournette to rush for 68.1 yards.
Jamaal Williams Over 71.5 Rushing Yards
The Detroit Lions were without RB D’Andre Swift (shoulder/ankle) for their Week 4 bout with the Seattle Seahawks. Lucky for them, they have Williams, who would be a starter on many teams. He made the most of his expanded role, turning 19 carries into 108 yards and two touchdowns. When Swift went down the prior week against the Vikings, Williams finished with 87 yards on 20 carries.
Swift is going to be out again in Week 5, with a more likely return for him being Week 7 following the Lions bye. That means Williams should be busy Sunday against the New England Patriots. They haven’t exactly been great at stopping the run, allowing the seventh-most yards rushing per game in the NFL.
Dameon Pierce Over 66.5 Rushing Yards
Pierce has increased his rushing total for the Houston Texans each week this season. The RB topped out at 131 yards rushing in Week 4, which is even more impressive when you consider that he received a modest 14 carries. He also found his way into the end zone against the Los Angeles Chargers, giving him a rushing touchdown in back-to-back games.
With regards to this prop, Pierce has totaled at least 69 yards rushing in each of the past three games. He’s arguably the most dangerous weapon the Texans have on offense, and they would be wise to try and keep the ball out of the hands of quarterback Davis Mills, who has thrown four interceptions over the past two games. Though the Jaguars are not an easy matchup, Pierce can still hit the over if he receives 15 to 20 carries, which seems likely.
