With a full slate of Week 5 games on Sunday, there are plenty of favorable odds available to construct a profitable parlay in the NFL.
Using OddsShopper’s “Parlay Builder” tool, we’ll look to build our bankroll using the “Chalk Eater” section to find some heavy favorites that show value according to Stokastic’s projections.
The parlay features all player props from BetMGM. With +678 odds, there is an expected ROI of 40% according to our projections. A $100 bet would profit $678 dollars and would serve as a good bankroll builder.
NFL Week 5 Profitable Parlay
Cam Akers Total Receptions u1.5 (-190)
We have a messy backfield in Los Angeles. Time is being split between Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. We’re going to focus on the worse of the two, at least pass-catching wise. Through four games, Akers has only seen four total targets with two catches. Henderson is seeing the majority of the receiving work out of the backfield with seven catches on nine targets. We feel this is a good spot to attack the lack of raw targets that Akers is seeing. Stokastic has Akers projected at 0.8 receptions, with u1.5 receptions having an expected win rate of 80%.
Marquise Brown u6.5 Receptions (-155)
The Cardinals are going up against one of the best passing defenses in the NFL in the Philadelphia Eagles, who are only allowing 177 passing yards per game. And on top of that, Brown is going up against one of the best corners in the league right now in Darius Slay. Slay has only allowed six catches on 21 targets while he is in coverage, and we expect the Eagles to focus on Brown, who is the Cardinals biggest receiving threat. Stokastic projections have Brown at 5.3 receptions, with the u6.5 receptions projected at an expected win rate of 73%.
Zach Wilson o.5 Passing Touchdowns (-275)
We’re back to the Wilson play from last week. Wilson got us his passing touchdown in his 2022 debut, and we expect him to do the same this week against the second-worst pass defense in the NFL. The Jets are still leaning a lot on throwing the ball opposed to running it, and Wilson has had a passing touchdown in four straight games going back to last season. Miami ranks second-to-last in passing yards allowed per game at 299.3 allowed per game. Stokastic projections have Wilson projected at 1.4 passing touchdowns, with o.5 passing touchdowns expected win rate at 72%.
Will Dissly u2.5 Receptions (-160)
Dissly is also involved in a split tight end room with Noah Fant. This week the Seahawks are going up against the best defense in the NFL against tight ends. The Saints have only allowed three receptions to one opposing tight end in four games. Dissly is seeing an average of three targets per game, and will need to keep up this target share while catching every ball thrown his way by Geno Smith. Stokastic has Dissly projected at 1.9 receptions, and the u2.5 receptions has an expected win rate of 71%.
Jacoby Brissett u1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-250)
Brissett has four passing touchdowns through four games, and has only hit two passing touchdowns in the same game once. The Browns are a very run-heavy offense with their studs in the backfield, Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb. With the skill in their backfield, and their elite offensive line, the Browns running backs have accounted for seven touchdowns in four games to start the season. We expect the Browns to stick to their normal game plan and run the ball a ton against a below-average run defense. Stokastic has Brissett u1.5 passing touchdowns expected win rate at 61%.
