Betting the overs on quarterback interception props has been a profitable strategy to start the season, especially plus-money INT props, which have gone 20-12 through Week 4.
There are a ton of juicy matchups when looking at the interception opportunities in Week 5. Here are some spots to target on Sunday’s slate.
Best Week 5 NFL Betting Prop Bets & Predictions
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
On the surface, a Texans-Jaguars matchup might not seem like an exciting one, but this is the type of game to target for interception props. The Jaguars have turned the team around under first year head coach Doug Pederson. The team has started the season 2-2 after finishing 2021 season with a 3-14 record. They will look to get a win at home against the Texans and improve their record above .500 for the first time since Week 1 of 2020.
Trevor Lawrence finished last year with a league-leading 17 interceptions. Through the first four weeks, he has only thrown two interceptions, but he’s managed to fumble four times. Lawrence completed 56.1 percent of his passes for 542 yards and three interceptions against the Texans last season with Houston sweeping the two-game regular season series against the Jaguars.
Christian Kirk has been a savior for this team, leading all receivers in targets, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. Zay Jones (ankle) is ready to play after sitting out of Week 4’s matchup versus the Eagles. Jones saw 11 targets in their Week 3 matchup, so watch for Lawrence to get him involved.
The Houston Texans defense has been decent so far, giving up 23.3 points per game with four interceptions and 11 sacks through. They have secured at least one interception in three of four games and the Texans finished top 10 in interceptions last season. Keep an eye on rookie safety Jalen Pitre, who already has two of the team’s four picks.
Lawrence’s passing attempts line is set at 34.5 attempts, which opens up a lot of opportunity for one mistake through the air. He finished last season with 51 attempts and 38 attempts in his two matchups against Houston. While I think Lawrence and the Jaguars should pull out the victory in this one, the Texans have shown that they can stay in games till the end. Take the over at -120 odds and watch for Lawrence to make at least one turnover through the air.
Best NFL Bet For Today’s Game: Trevor Lawrence Over 0.5 INTs (-120)
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
The Eagles continue to impress everyone around the league as they enter Week 5 as the only undefeated team. Philadelphia comes to Arizona as five-point favorites over the 2-2 Cardinals. Kyler Murray will look to build on the momentum from their win last week over the Carolina Panthers.
Murray is second in the league with 176 pass attempts through four games. His passing attempts line is set at 36.5 attempts. It is never a bad plan to target quarterbacks that throw the ball a majority of the game. Looking at Murray’s splits from last season, 7 of his 10 interceptions came at home. Oddly enough, he has not thrown an interception in their two home games to start the 2022 season. Murray did not face the Eagles last year, but he did throw an interception against the Eagles in their 2020 matchup.
The Cardinals have been inconsistent on offense, with injuries to some of their top targets. Fortunately, Marquise Brown was removed from the injury report and will be playing through a foot injury. Brown is the Cardinals clear number one target, so watch for the Eagles to focus their defensive scheme on Brown.
The Eagles defense has been lights out in 2022. Philadelphia is coming off a five turnover performance against Jacksonville last Sunday. They rank second in sacks with 16 along with 5 interceptions as a team. The Eagles have a dangerous cornerback combo in Darius Slay and James Bradberry, who each have two interceptions a piece to start the season.
The Cardinals have not played well at home and now have to go up against an Eagles defense that ranks top 10 this season. Murray is good at avoiding sacks, which opens up more opportunity for off-balance attempts. Back the hottest team in the league to force a turnover through the air and take Murray over 0.5 interceptions on Sunday.
Best NFL Bet For Today’s Game: Kyler Murray 0.5 INTs (-120)
