Following a high-scoring Thursday Night Football matchup between the Cardinals and Saints along with a Christian McCaffrey trade to the 49ers, Week 7 has started off with a bang we’re hoping to see follow through the weekend. In contrast to recent weeks, the betting lines have featured some drastic point spread shifts since they opened last Sunday, including a three-point favorite transitioning to a one-point underdog over the course of the work week. In this post, we’re specifically focusing on NFL Week 7 odds movement.
Each week in this article, we’ll identify the largest point spread movements between Monday and Friday to estimate why they’ve happened and any edge that may be available before further movement occurs heading into the weekend. Taking advantage of the FREE tools at OddsShopper, we’re able to recognize when the line movements took place and solidify the best odds available to capitalize on before the weekend movement ensues.
With some momentous point-spread movements heading into Week 7 Sunday, let’s dive into the biggest movers from the week to find potential underlying values before the weekend.
NFL Week 7 Odds Movement Today: Expert Betting Picks 10/21
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers
Game Time: Sunday 10/23, 1:00 p.m. ET, Bank of America Stadium
Opening Line: CAR +10.0 (-107)
Current Line: CAR +13.0 (-107)
The Carolina Panthers (1-5) are shedding players since firing head coach Matt Rhule as the division rival Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) head into Bank of America Stadium on Sunday. The point spread opened with the Panthers as 10-point underdogs and it quickly began moving in Tampa’s favor since late Sunday: one point up on Monday and another 2.5 points from Wednesday into late Thursday upon the news breaking of McCaffrey’s trade to San Francisco. The seismic line movement is in part from the trade of two prominent offensive members in both McCaffrey and Robbie Anderson this week, along with the disaster unfolding for their season since it started. In addition, Tampa and a determined Tom Brady are seeking a bounce-back win after an upset loss in Pittsburgh last Sunday, as 69% of the bets are coming in on Tampa.
Bucs guard Shaq Mason remains questionable after practicing on Thursday, along with receiver Julio Jones. Tight end Cameron Brate hasn’t practiced all week and is likely to miss time with a sprained neck endured in Week 6 against the Steelers. The Panthers may be shorthanded in their secondary with cornerback Donte Jackson questionable for Sunday after missing practice this week in addition to Jaycee Horn, who was a limited participant on Thursday. Receiver Laviska Shenault and starting linebacker Frankie Luvu are also questionable tags following limited practice this week.
Buccaneers at Panthers Lean
In another week with P.J. Walker under center for the Panthers, Carolina will be hard-pressed on offense now without McCaffrey as a reliable safety net. While Anderson wasn’t moving the needle of difference, he still brought an element of stretching the field that is no longer available. The Buccaneers looked flat against the Steelers but the situation pales in comparison to the unraveling of a Carolina team now in fire sale mode. Though Tampa has to cover two touchdowns, it’s difficult to assume the Panthers keep this one at all close, especially if their defense faces any setbacks with key starters hobbled. Tampa may be 2-4-0 against the spread this season, but they remain 2-1-0 on the road where the Bucs’ backfield could get going against a Panthers defense allowing 133.3 rushing yards per game. You can add the Bucs to a teaser parlay mitigating an oddball backdoor cover but I’d jump on the -13 before it moves beyond two touchdowns, otherwise avoid the line entirely.
New York Jets at Denver Broncos
Game Time: Sunday 10/23, 4:05 p.m. ET, Empower Field
Opening Line: DEN -3.0 (-110)
Current Line: DEN +1.0 (-115)
The New York Jets (4-2) are flying high as they head out west to Mile High to face a Denver Broncos (2-4) team still trying to figure out their offensive woes. The point spread opened with the Broncos as three-point favorites and has since curtailed into a +1 underdog situation for Denver, with two points of movement toward the Jets by Wednesday and another two points since then. The massive shift presumably descends from a hot topic of the Jets’ success coupled with a weekly head-scratcher of the Broncos offense still struggling to produce. With 79% of the bets coming in on New York, a reflection of the public’s lacking confidence in Denver’s ability to score is crystal clear.
Jets offensive tackle Duane Brown, linebacker Quincy Williams and receiver Braxton Berrios were limited in practice this week, remaining questionable but expected to play Sunday. Russell Wilson has been limited in practice with a hamstring injury though nothing is suspected to sideline him. Broncos guard Quinn Meinerz was limited in practice while still questionable, along with much of the starting Denver defensive line in Dre’Mont Jones, D.J. Jones, DeShawn Williams and Josey Jewell. Corner K’Waun Williams has also been limited in practice with a wrist injury.
Jets at Broncos Lean
While the Jets have much of the public steam behind them along with going 4-2-0 ATS and 3-0-0 on the road ATS this season, the incredible line movement feels like a trap spot. The Broncos’ defense has allowed the fifth-fewest at 184.5 passing yards per game and the fourth-fewest points per game at 16.5 points. The Broncos’ offense is likely to have its moments this season under Wilson’s hand and at home as underdogs wouldn’t surprise me to be the place to do so. Wait to see if the line continues to move in favor of the Jets and grab the Broncos wherever it tops out or simply grab the +1 now while you can, though a teaser wouldn’t hurt either.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Chargers
Game Time: Sunday 10/23, 4:25 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium
Opening Line: LAC -6.5 (-107)
Current Line: LAC -5.0 (-107)
Geno Smith and his surprisingly competitive Seattle Seahawks (3-3) fly south to SoFi Stadium to battle Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers (4-2). The point spread opened with the Chargers as near touchdown favorites at -6.5 and has inched its way down to -5 as of late Thursday. Given that 86% of the bets have come in on Seattle throughout the week, it’s likely the betting public anticipates a shootout between the two, considering a game total of 50 points, and for the Seahawks to keep it close here.
The potential return of receiver Keenan Allen remains hopeful for the Chargers as he’s been limited in practice this week following a five-week absence and a clear gain for Los Angeles should he suit up. Running back Joshua Kelley, receiver Josh Palmer and tight end Donald Parham all have missed practice this week and remain questionable. Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett has missed practice this week with a hamstring injury and would be a blow to the Seattle offense should he not play on Sunday.
Seahawks at Chargers Lean
Considering the gradual line movement throughout this week pushing toward Seattle, it’s of curiosity to see where the line finally bottoms out and where you can grab the Chargers’ best value. The emergence of running back Kenneth Walker facing a Chargers defense allowing 125 rushing yards per game has helped move the public here, especially in regards to keeping the game close. Los Angeles regaining Allen in the receiving corps against a Seahawks defense allowing 245 passing yards per game opens things up for Herbert and the Chargers’ offense. With how much the public has been leaning in on Seattle, wait to see if this line moves further before grabbing the Chargers as close to a field goal favorite as possible.
