The first three days of the 2022-23 NBA season have gone and gone, and every team has taken the court at least once. Tonight, the Heat and Celtics will meet in a nationally televised Eastern Conference battle. The Warriors and Nuggets will follow them. Both of those games offer solid betting value, but bettors should target two other players in less significant matchups — Rudy Gobert and DeMar DeRozan — for the best betting odds on the market. Tailing the best NBA props and predictions below should yield a positive return.
Best NBA Props & Predictions
Rudy Gobert O/U 14.5 Rebounds
Bettors may want to back Rudy Gobert in a revenge spot against his former team, the Utah Jazz, but they shouldn’t expect much out of him on the glass. He may have racked up a ton of rebounds last season, but he didn’t actually get many contested boards. That may have worked on a small, guard-heavy roster like Utah’s, but it won’t work on the much bigger Minnesota Timberwolves, especially alongside Karl-Anthony Towns.
Gobert averaged a career-high 14.7 rebounds per game last year, yet DraftKings has gassed this total up to 15.5 after he started the year with 16 boards against Oklahoma City. But Gobert grabbed only 20% of all possible boards in the contest, a downtick from his 25% rebound rate from last year. Furthermore, Gobert had never averaged more than 13.5 rebounds per game before last year’s campaign with the Jazz. The books may have over-adjusted their priors here.
Another factor points to value on this market: Utah’s roster itself. The new-look Jazz feature plenty of size and a few aggressive rebounders. Big man Jarred Vanderbilt grabbed 246 contested rebounds last year and just grabbed 12 boards against the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday. Vanderbilt and Walker Kessler combined 22 total rebounds as Nuggets center Nikola Jokic grabbed a measly four.
Jazz-Timberwolves Prediction: Gobert UNDER 14.5 Rebounds (+110) at DraftKings
DeMar DeRozan O/U 5.5 Assists
Here’s an interesting angle — DeMar DeRozan racked up nine assists in Chicago’s season opener. With guards Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine sidelined, it makes sense for DeRozan to do more of the ball handling. DeRozan currently leads the NBA in assist percentage (47.4%) among players with at least 20 minutes played, beating out Trae Young (46.4%) and Chris Paul (42.9%). With Ball and LaVine still sidelined, backing DeRozan here feels sharp.
It’s also worth noting that DeRozan recorded his nine-assist performance against the Miami Heat. The Heat ranked eighth in defensive rating in the preseason (101) and are known for their aggressive defensive style. The Wizards ranked 13th in the preseason (103) and gave up plenty of points to the Myles Turner-less Indiana Pacers.
DeRozan went over this total 34 times last season despite often playing alongside LaVine and Ball. He averaged 5.7 assists per game against the Wizards last year but had a strong eight-assist showing in January. It’s early, but Washington and Chicago have both played at an above-average pace this year, so DeRozan should get enough extra possessions to rack up dimes. Play the higher total for a better return at FanDuel.
Bulls-Wizards Prediction: DeRozan OVER 5.5 Assists (-102) at FanDuel
Nikola Jokic O/U 12.5 Rebounds
Tonight’s slate is a good buy-low spot for Nikola Jokic. He struggled on the glass in Denver’s season opener and recorded a measly four boards. Jokic hadn’t recorded fewer rebounds since Denver’s meaningless regular-season finale in May 2021, in which he played just 17 minutes.
Jokic went over this number in 43 of his 74 appearances last year, good for a 58.1% hit rate that’s slightly better than the implied odds of 53.1%. He went over in three of four regular-season contests against the Warriors while averaging 15.8 rebounds per game against them. The Warriors put up more of a fight on the glass in the postseason, but Jokic still averaged 13.2 rebounds per game in their playoff series.
Bettors should trust Jokic’s elite 23% rebound rate from last year in this spot. Jokic has shown much more fight on the glass than Gobert as well, as he led the NBA in contested rebounds with 450. The books have over-corrected this line because of Jokic’s dismal opening night showing, but that bettors should treat that performance as an outlier for now.
Nuggets-Warriors Prediction: Jokic OVER 12.5 Rebounds (-113) at FanDuel
