One of the biggest parts of being a successful sports bettor is gathering information, but the key is getting the right information and then knowing what to do with it. Figuring out who is betting on what and understanding why is a critical piece of handicapping. That’s especially true in the NFL. This is where knowing the percentage of handle (dollars) compared to bets (amount) comes into play.
The goal of this article is to report on what teams the betting public is most heavily on and then to decide whether or not to follow the “herd” or “fade” them. It will focus on games that have at least 75% of handle or bets. This article’s process went 2-2 last week and is 18-7 on the season (72%).
NFL Week 7 Betting Trends & Handles vs. Bet Percentage Plays
Giants at Jaguars (Jaguars -3, 43)
Giants +3, Bets 80%, Handle 60%
The narrative you have heard all week is that the Giants keep winning and the Jaguars do not deserve to be favored in this game, but I point back to my previous articles in which I have been leaning on home teams in the AFC/NFC matchups as they have more motivation. But if you subscribe to DVOA, there is a reason why the sharp money is on the Jaguars. The Giants are 18th in DVOA, but just 30th on defense. The Jaguars are 8th in DVOA, 11th on offense and 10th on defense.
I am also leaning toward the better defensive team and the Jags are third in rushing yards allowed. I will do that here, as I like the Jags to establish the run at home and get the cover against the Giants, 23-19. I am also very leery of any road dogs that are being backed by the public when the handle is only at 60%.
Best Bet – Jaguars -3 FADE THE PUBLIC
Packers at Commanders (Packers -4.5, 41.5)
Packers -4.5, Bets 76%, Handle 74%
The Packers barely beat the Patriots at home and lost to both the New York Giants and Jets the last two weeks. This offense is struggling to find an identity, scoring just 12 points in the last six quarters. Meanwhile, the Commanders’ scores in the last four games were 8, 10, 17, 12, and now they are with backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke.
With this being a lower-scoring game and the sharp money on the under, I will also look at taking the +4.5 on the Commanders to keep this game close at home with the Packers winning 16-13.
Best Bet – Commanders +4.5 FADE THE PUBLIC
Jets at Broncos (Broncos -1, 38.5)
Jets +1, Bets 76%, Handle 54%
The theme of the 2022 NFL season seems to be two offensively challenged teams going against each other. Much has been made about the huge trends on strong defenses and unders. I think it continues here with the Jets-Broncos.
The Jets are starting to raise some eyebrows at 4-2, with wins against the Dolphins and Packers in the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the public has had to endure these awful Broncos week after week. The Jets are the darlings, winning three in a row but now there are expectations as this line is just Denver -1. This is a must-win game for the Broncos at home and their defense is still top-five. I think the right move was announcing Melvin Gordon as the starting running back to get the locker room in order. With Russell Wilson’s limited capacity, they have to rely on their defense and the run game.
Hold your nose for another stinker, but with Denver coming out on top by a field goal, 19-16. This game total just keeps going down by half a point each day. I’m surprised it is not 37 or less.
Best Bet – Broncos -1 FADE THE PUBLIC
Chiefs at 49ers (Chiefs -2, 48)
Chiefs -2, Bets 88%, Handle 77%
Nobody thought the Chiefs could lose as a home dog last week against the Bills, but the Bills’ defense is considerably better than Kansas City’s and it showed. They also did not expect the 49ers to lose outright to the Falcons, but I had the Falcons last week as one of my best bets, as San Francisco had a ton of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Now we get a role reversal, with the Chiefs being road favorites in this AFC-NFC matchup.
Again, I will side with the home team in this spot because of motivation, but I also believe in the 49ers’ defense, which looks to have gotten some players back (Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, Mike McGlinchey and Jimmie Ward practiced Thursday). This Niners’ defense is filthy ranking first in yards per game, second in rushing yards allowed, second in passing yards allowed and second in points per game allowed.
Even though this article is strictly looking at the sides, I do LOVE the UNDER in this game, which has climbed to 49. I don’t think it comes anywhere near that number and will be in the low 40s. Look for the 49ers to win, 23-20.
Best Bet – 49ers +2 FADE THE PUBLIC
