Betting lines have opened for the NHL’s 10-game slate Thursday, which provides some great angles to attack and a fun opportunity to try a long-shot parlay at +590. Let’s dive into the three legs and the logic behind each one.
Odds Courtesy of DraftKings.
Blues-Predators Odds and Prediction: Predators moneyline (-155)
The St. Louis Blues are realistically the better side in this matchup, and this take comes down to how this exact spot sets up for the Nashville Predators, who will have every edge as they look to snap a five-game losing streak at home.
Rested home teams are absolutely feasting on visiting road sides playing the second of a back-to-back in the early going this season, and expect that to continue in this spot as the Predators will play with a ton of urgency and make life tough on the Blues, who played at the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday.
St. Louis had been analytically very unimpressive again so far this season, with an expected goals for percentage of just 44.84% prior to Wednesday. We have seen the Blues’ high-powered offensive pieces able to consistently outscore its expected goals rate due to high quality passes through the royal road, as well as above average finishing ability, but they will need to more be more opportunistic than ever in this spot when the Predators should carry far more of the play.
It also doesn’t help that Blues forward Pavel Buchnevich will likely remain sidelined for this game, because he has legitimately moved the needle when healthy.
Nashville will also hold a very notable goaltending edge with Juuse Saros likely opposing St. Louis backup Thomas Greiss after Jordan Binnington played Wednesday. So while a price of -155 seems underwhelming, it is warranted in this spot and the Predators should snap their slump.
Oilers-Blackhawks Odds and Prediction: Oilers -1.5 puck line (+110)
This goes against our trend of rested home sides taking full advantage of road teams on night two of a back-to-back, but it is well warranted with how overvalued the Chicago Blackhawks are after an unlikely 4-2-0 start, and we should see the Edmonton Oilers, who have come slowly out of the gate, generate a lot of offense here.
Chicago has controlled play to an expected goals rate of just 45.16% this season, and it arguably has often looked worse than that to the eye.
Journeyman goalie Alex Stalock has been fantastic for Chicago, with a .938 SV% and playing to a +3.9 goals saved above expected rating in the early going.
Though that is an enjoyable story from a fan’s perspective, based on Stalock’s results over the past two seasons, it seems highly unlikely to continue moving forward, and eventually the Blackhawks’ shaky defensive play is going to result in more goals against.
Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the high powered Oilers, who have often made the best goalies look silly, offer a perfect matchup for Stalock’s expected regression.
Chicago has scored 4.97 goals above expected in its six games, and the roster figures to score below its expected rates due to a lack of elite playmakers and finishers beyond Patrick Kane, and therefore the early offensive results should level off over a larger sample.
Maple Leafs-Sharks Odds and Prediction: Over 6.5 (+100)
This play almost entirely goes against all of the early season statistics, but stepping back and thinking of it from a logical perspective, it makes a lot of sense.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have played to a shaky 4-3-0 record and should be eager to get into this soft matchup against the San Jose Sharks, who have allowed three goals per game this season and do not have an elite defender capable of locking up Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander and the rest of the attack.
Toronto’s offensive results have been underwhelming, but this team is still likely to be one of the most lethal units leaguewide and is going to break out with some trademark performances soon.
That could quite likely be in this spot, and it may need to be with Toronto already announcing a night off for No. 1 goalie Ilya Samsonov, meaning backup Erik Kallgren will make his second start of the season.
Kallgren managed an .833 SV% against the Arizona Coyotes and played to a lowly -5.2 goals saved above expected rating a season ago.
Toronto has played significantly worse defensively than last season, as the Maple Leafs hold the 11th worst xGA/60 in the NHL this season and may not insulate Kallgren in this spot.
