Let’s dive into the two best NHL bets for the six-game slate on Sunday, and be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool for more best bets and odds. In this post, we’ll focus on our best Capitals-Jets prediction. We’ll also make our best Avalanche-Blues prediction.
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Avalanche-Blues prediction: Avs ML (-110, DraftKings)
To kick off Sunday’s slate, there is a Central Division tilt with the sixth-place St. Louis Blues hosting the fourth-place Colorado Avalanche. After injuries plagued the Avs through the first quarter of the season, now is the time to buy low on the defending Cup Champions as they start to get guys back in the lineup.
Valeri Nichushkin returned to the lineup on Friday while Artturi Lehkonen is expected to make his return in this contest. Those are two extremely important forwards to get back in the lineup for a team that has struggled to score.
The good news for the Avs is that the Blues are perhaps one of the easiest teams to score on in the NHL. At 5v5, St. Louis ranks just 20th in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60).
With an aging blue line that is thin because of the pre-season injuries to defensemen Marco Scandella and Scott Perunovich, the Blues have been leading high-danger scoring chances to their opposition every night. Backing up this defense is goaltender Jordan Binnington, who has struggled mightily this season.
Through 20 starts, Binnington is 9-11 with a .889 SV% and 3.42 GAA. Among starting goaltenders, he ranks 26th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5.
Across the ice, goaltender Alexandar Georgiev is projected to get the start for Colorado. Through 28 starts this season, he is 11-5-2 with a .920 SV% and 2.65 GAA.
His metrics suggest that regression should not be an issue as Georgiev ranks 12th among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5v5. In front of Georgiev is one of the best defenses in hockey as the Avs rank seventh in the league in xGA/60 at 5v5.
In this matchup, Colorado boasts the better goaltender, defense, coach, special teams, and is now getting a few key pieces back offensively. That should be enough to get avenge their loss to St. Louis from earlier this season.
Capitals-Jets prediction: Jets ML (-130, DraftKings)
Another Central Division team to back on Sunday evening is the Winnipeg Jets, who host the Metropolitan Division’s Washington Capitals. The Jets enter this contest in terrific form, winning four straight games and 10 of their last 13.
This trend should continue with goaltender Connor Hellebuyck slated to take the crease for Winnipeg. One of the early front-runners for the Vezina Trophy, Hellebuyck has been sensational this season with a .932 SV% and 2.24 GAA.
Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue as he ranks first among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5v5. Hellebuyck’s strong play should continue against Washington, a team he has dominated throughout his career.
Across nine career starts against the Caps, he boasts a .929 SV% and 2.19 GAA. Goal support should not be too difficult to come by as the Jets rank 13th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5v5.
Meanwhile, Washington ranks just 20th in the same category. Slated to get the start in net for the Caps is goaltender Charlie Lindgren, who has been very sharp recently and is perhaps the reason Winnipeg’s line has not gotten longer.
However, now should be the time to sell on Lindgren as he has been outperforming his metrics. If he qualified, Lindgren would rank just 23rd among starting goaltenders in GSAx/60 at 5v5.
Defensively, these teams are neck-and-neck. However, Winnipeg boasts the better offense, goaltender, and is on home-ice, making them the play to make at these odds.
