These two teams are moving in opposite directions after both of their hot starts this season. The Philadelphia Eagles ran into a speed bump in Week 10 when they lost against the Washington Commanders. They did struggle to get anything going in Week 11 but were able to leave Indianapolis with a win and have righted the ship since then. Let’s dive into the Eagles-Giants prediction and look at some imperative injury updates with Saquon Barkley confirmed to play this afternoon.
The New York Giants have been on a much different trajectory of late. After a blistering 6-1 start to the season, the Giants have not won in three straight games, because of their tie last week, and four of their last five with their only win coming against the last place Houston Texans.
The following analyzes the game with an expert Eagles-Giants prediction and picks. For more great bets this NFL Week 14 check out our OddsShopper tools and content.
UPDATE: Saquon Barkley is expected to play.
Just spoke to #Giants coach Brian Daboll for an interview that will air shortly on @NFLGameDay. He says RB Saquon Barkley will play today.
— Mike Garafolo (@MikeGarafolo) December 11, 2022
NFL Odds: Eagles-Giants Odds
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Will the Eagles Fly at MetLife?
The Eagles seemed to get their passing attack back in Week 13 against a depleted Titans defense. A.J. Brown went off for 119 yards and two touchdowns on eight receptions. The Eagles have struggled to get their passing game going since the loss of TE Dallas Goedert, but last week was a step in the right direction.
The Eagles rank 3rd in total DVOA offence this season and are top three in every category this season. The mix of Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders on the ground with incredible WRs is a potent recipe for success this season for the Eagles.
This Giants team is much the opposite. They rank 28th in total DVOA defense with every stat category ranked in the bottom third of the league. They have been getting beat in the air recently and we could easily see A.J. Brown have a field day at MetLife.
Can Saquon Barkley Carry New York?
Say what you want about the future of Daniel Jones, but it is hard to imagine that anyone would have guessed he would have thrown only four interceptions this far into the season. Aside from his rookie season where he had 24 passing touchdowns and 12 interceptions, Jones has not had a 2:1 TD-interception ratio in any of the other three seasons.
It is obvious what the Giants are doing this year. They are taking the ball out of Jones’ hands and giving it to their prized workhorse, RB Saquon Barkley. This season is looking like Barkley’s best as a pro on the ground, even compared to his amazing rookie season where he ran for 1307 yards and 11 touchdowns. Barkley may have a hard time hitting his receptions totals from that season, but he is simply being fed the ball more on the ground which has led him to having a career best 87.9 yards per game on the ground.
Last week, in a game he finished, Barkley was the only running back to see a carry, so expect his workload to be heavy even though he’s nursing a neck injury on Sunday in this divisional battle. One thing we do know about the Eagles is they are ball hawks in the air, but can get beat on the ground. Derrick Henry was stifled on the ground last week against the Eagles as he managed just 30 yards on 11 carries, but game script no doubt played a part in that.
The Eagles defense ranks 6th in DVOA metrics, but does struggle to stop the run. While the Eagles limited Henry, they allowed the hobbled Ryan Tannehill to scramble three times for 34 yards. I am fully expecting to see Jones on the run here and adding some extra yards with his feet considering he has topped five rush attempts in all but one game this season. Jones has averaged 43.5 yards on the ground this season.
Final Eagles-Giants Prediction & Pick:
The Eagles got the better of me last week as I took the Titans on the road to cover the points. This line seems a little wide and I wouldn’t be mad taking a stab at the Giants at +7, considering they have been in so many tight games all year. Nine of the Giants 12 games this season has been within eight points.
It seems like a buy-low, sell-high scenario we have this week as the Eagles are coming in flying high off their 25-point win against the Titans, while the Giants are win-less in three straight. The stats dictate that the Eagles should be a good-size favorite, but the feeling here is that it will be a tough December divisional battle where the Giants try to throw everything at the Eagles to keep their playoff hopes alive. Unfortunately, I just do not have the guts to pull the trigger on the Giants. They are doing much better under their new coach, but it still doesn’t give me all the confidence in the world. I am sure I will sprinkle a bit on the Giants on Sunday, especially in some teasers or if the number gets to 7.5, but I have another angle I will be attacking.
The angle I will be attacking in this bet is Daniel Jones‘ rushing prop. It is currently sitting at 35.5 rushing yards here, but Jones is averaging 53 yards per game on the ground in four games against the Eagles and is averaging 43.5 on the ground this season. This is a number that Jones has gone over in six of the 12 games this season.
Final Eagles-Giants Pick: Daniel Jones Over 35.5 rushing yards (-110)
