Three player props from the NHL’s strong Monday slate gives us a nice price out at +590 on FanDuel. Let’s dive into the logic behind each selection.
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Best NHL Parlay Bet | Dec. 5
Leon Draisaitl Over 1.5 Points (Capitals vs Canucks) -104:
With several notable absences on the wing and very few forwards in livable form, the Edmonton Oilers have united Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid on a line at even strength, and as you would expect the duo has been a problem for the opposition.
Over the last three games Draisaitl has averaged close to 23 minutes of ice time and has put up an astonishing nine points to lead Edmonton to two wins over the span.
Washington has not been elite defensively by any means this season and will now take the ice with backup netminder Charlie Lindgren making the start.
Edmonton is likely to score three plus tonight and if they do it will come with key performances from Draisaitl and McDavid. A blowout does not seem likely, but seeing the Oilers dragged to another victory from its dynamic duo does, and Draisaitl should be recording a pair of points closer to 60% of the time.
Ilya Mikheyev Over 0.5 Points +110 (Canadiens vs Canucks):
Montreal has allowed a league worst xGA/60 rating of 3.96 over its last ten contests, which have come against sides averaging 21.6th place in the NHL standings.
Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault’s spectacular play in goal has hidden the Canadiens shaky defensive play to an extent as well as the fact that it has not faced many strong offensive sides, but with a strong degree of certainty Montreal is going to allow a lot more goals moving forward.
Vancouver’s strong second unit of Ilya Mikheyev, Elias Pettersson, and Andrei Kuzmenko has cooled off over the last three contests, but tonight’s matchup is a perfect time to get back on the horse with this dynamic unit, and Mikheyev being at plus money to record a point makes him an excellent target.
Mikheyev has trended into significantly better form of late after a late start to the season due to injury, and he Pettersson and Kuzmenko have controlled play to a 51.53 xGF% rating while looking notably dangerous.
Mikheyev has also found his way onto the Canucks second powerplay unit, and in a matchup where Vancouver is likely to score three or more Mikheyev projects to record a single point more often than a price of +110 suggests.
Elias Lindholm Over 2.5 Shots -140 (Coyotes vs Flames):
On numerous occasions I have broken down how oddsmakers are not moving shot prop prices enough in favorable matchups for shooters, and a home matchup for Lindholm versus the Coyotes is a perfect example of the time to get involved with that notion.
Arizona is allowing 34.42 shots against per 60 this season, and it’s quite logical that Calgary carries far more of the play tonight and pepper the Coyotes goal.
Elias Lindholm has continued to find his groove after a slow start to the season, which was not overly shocking as the Flames scuffled to find a good even strength unit to skate Lindholm on after the losses of Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk.
Jonathan Huberdeau played through injury early on this season and was in awful form when in the lineup, but since returning has displayed far better form altogether, and Calgary is as you would expect, now skating its best playmaker with its best goal scorer in Lindholm.
Lindholm has scored in two straight contests with four shots in each and is in a tremendous situation to keep firing the puck on goal tonight versus Arizona.
Lindholm has cashed the over on this line in 7-of-11 (63%) recent contests while averaging exactly three shots on target, and logic dictates he is going to sustain that mark moving forward, especially in soft matchups. Lindholm was a forty-goal scorer a year ago, and it simply is not an anomaly for such a talented shooter to fire away on Calgary’s top line and top powerplay unit.
-140 suggests an implied probability of 58.3%, but Lindholm’s recent sample suggests he is going to pass the 2.5 mark at a higher rate than that, especially versus Arizona.
