Early season NHL futures can be wildly profitable to bettors who make early reads, as oddsmakers can take longer than on other larger leagues like the NFL or NBA to make notable adjustments to prices. Let’s take a look at some updated NHL futures odds and two bets that we like including Andrei Svechnikov and Rasmus Dahlin. Be sure to check our OddsShopper tool for the latest NHL bets.
The important part of this concept is to differentiate between angles that may simply be overreacting to a small sample size, compared to surprising on-goings that may actually be sustainable for 82 games.
We are seeing exactly that concept at play with two extremely talented players who likely will have full-fledged breakouts this season, being 2018 first overall pick Rasmus Dahlin, and 2018 second overall pick Andrei Svechnikov.
Both have dominated early this season, but realistically hold the skillsets to do so moving forward and therefore getting in on some extremely long prices now should hold strong value.
NHL Futures Odds
Andrei Svechnikov Rocket Richard Trophy +7500 (FanDuel):
Svechnikov sits tied atop the League with seven goals throughout his first six games, yet is still priced at 75/1 to take home the Rocket Richard trophy on FanDuel, and that number is simply far too long with how likely he is to hang around this race.
Every year we are always going to see hot early starts from players who ultimately barely crack 20 goals, but that does not seem to be the case for Svechnikov, and we are not overreacting to a small sample size with this play.
Svechnikov’s finishing ability is world class, which was a massive factor in the Hurricanes selecting him No. 2 overall in the 2018 NHL entry draft.
To this point Svechnikov’s career best goal output came last season with just 30. However, the fact that he has not yet had a full-fledged breakout with regards to goal production is likely disguising that this scorching hot start could actually be a realistic season-long narrative for the talented 22 year-old Russian, and holding this line at the 75/1 price.
Svechnikov’s 30 goals last year came with a -1.8 goals scored above expected rating, but given his shooting ability it’s an easy argument to say this is a player who is likely to outscore his expected rate significantly on average, and we are seeing that in the early going this season.
He is entering his prime at 22 as well, so it’s very logical to think that will also push his production up another notch.
Playing on an elite Carolina powerplay and talented roster altogether certainly doesn’t hurt either, and should continue to provide Svechnikov ample opportunities to find the back of the net.
Auston Matthews is still the runaway favorite in this market and deservedly so, but his slow start opens the door for a potential longshot such as Svechnikov, and if it continues much longer, we will see the odds begin to move more significantly. Let’s take a look at another intriguing NHL futures odds update.
Rasmus Dahlin Norris Trophy Winner +2400 (FanDuel):
Dahlin and the Sabres have attracted attention from the NHL media, and for good reason as one of the NHL’s better markets is finally turning the corner. Which is part of what we are banking on here, if Dahlin leads the Sabres back to the postseason with elite play, that could be an attractive narrative to voters on this award.
Dahlin opened the season with an NHL record breaking streak, recording a goal in five consecutive games to open the season as a defenseman, and has added three assists to that for eight points in five games.
We know offensive production is a gigantic factor in Norris trophy voting, and whether that is entirely fair or not, that’s a narrative that can work in favor with this play, as Dahlin could finish the season near a point-per-game pace playing on a significantly improved Sabres team.
The Sabres improvement is an important piece when we evaluate Dahlin’s chance to steal this award, as he simply does not project to be one of the league’s elite defensive defenders this season, but voters have shown that will not matter if Dahlin scores 25 goals and 80 points.
Similar to the Rocket, we will need to fade a very worthy favorite being Cale Makar, but after that I believe some of the players priced with significantly higher chances of winning this award than Dahlin are simply wrong, and gives up value at this number.
