Luka Doncic, Christian Wood and the Mavs are in New Orleans to face a Pelicans team who will be significantly short-handed playing without three of their starters. Thus, what was supposed to be an exciting and competitive matchup between two of the best first quarter teams in the league so far this season has the potential to play much differently now. Let’s take a look at some Mavericks – Pelicans bets, be sure to check our OddsShopper tool for the latest odds.
Best Mavericks – Pelicans Bets: First Quarter Totals
The Pelicans have been quite dominant early on in their games to start the year however missing Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, and Herb Jones makes them significantly worse. While the team scores 30.3 first quarter points (eight-most) and has the eighth-best offensive rating with all three in the starting lineup, they should struggle offensively playing without Ingram and Williamson – the duo generated roughly 40% of the first quarter points the team scored thus far, an offensive output that their replacements will struggle to match even against worse defenses than Dallas’s (no offense to Larry Nance Jr. or Trey Murphy III).
Dallas only played 2 games so far this season and their first quarter rates are heavily skewed as a result. Mainly, we shouldn’t expect the team to finish the season with a 147.9 offensive rating (currently League best) or for them to score an average of 35.5 first quarter points (tied with Milwaukee for most in the league). However, the team’s strong defense and slow pace aren’t a coincidence and are in-line with how the team played last season (second slowest pace, eighth best defensive rating) and how it most likely wants to play this year.
Specifically, the team already plays at the League’s second slowest pace and have the second-best defensive rating, limiting Phoenix to 24 first quarter points and Memphis to only 17. While opponents will eventually shoot better against them, Dallas should be able to demonstrate its defensive prowess against this version of the Pelicans, which has much less offensive talent than either the Suns or Grizzlies.
Considering the offensive vacuum left by Ingram’s and Williamson’s absences and Dallas’s tendency to slow down the game and limit opposing offenses, focusing on New-Orleans’ first quarter points total (27.5) and going under it is one way to approach today’s opening quarter. Be sure to shop around for the best lines and odds – as of time of writing, FanDuel has the Pelicans’ first quarter points total at 26.5 whereas BetMGM has it at 27.5. Likewise, under 26.5 is -102 on Fanduel but +105 on BetMGM (as an alternative line). Taking under 56.5 first quarter points is another avenue to tackle this matchup, as some books have the total at 55.5. Taking the under on New-Orleans’ points total is the preferred bet here but since it’s not widely available on all books, going under the game’s first quarter total presents another option to get exposure to tonight’s matchup.
Mavs-Pelicans Bets: Pelicans Under 27.5 First Quarter Points (-125 at BetMGM) or Under 56.5 First Quarter Total Points (-115 at BetMGM orPointsBet).
