Wednesday goes as the first full-slate of this NHL season and features some notably-high early season totals, with the highest of the bunch going to a classic rivalry showdown between the high-flying Toronto Maple Leafs and the Montreal Canadiens.
Montreal are widely priced to be near the very bottom of the NHL standings this season, and although I believe that the price to fade the Canadiens in this spot has now surpassed any kind of value, we have some strong options in the prop market looking for some impressive run of play from the Leafs.
Martin St. Louis’ young Canadiens group will surely be ready to go in this spot against the rival Maple Leafs on opening night, which is realistically close to their Super Bowl for the season. I may even believe in this team more than some.
But for a young defensive core featuring four rookies alongside David Savard and Chris Wideman, keeping the Leafs top talents at bay seems to be quite a stretch, and I think there’s a strong chance the Leafs superstars shine on the road in this spot.
Toronto played to the league’s highest expected goals for % last season at 56.94%, and generated a total of 34.81 shots per game. We could likely see the team surpass that shot total here, leading to some offense against Jake Allen.
Which brings me to our plays/single-game parlay for this contest.
Bet365 is now offering single-game parlay’s including shots, goals, and result, and is where I am pulling the odds for this play from, but I have included several other ways to get involved here for users of other books or users who would prefer to play player props.
Today’s Best Single-Game Parlay Bet
Leafs Moneyline
We won’t dwell on this long. I would not back Toronto’s moneyline straight up at -260, but if Matthews scores with Nylander and Marner both getting points to complete the rest of the SGP, I will run the risk that the Canadiens don’t generate enough offense to win this game.
Auston Matthews to Score Anytime
Matthews has proven to be far-and-away the world’s best goalscorer at this point in his career when healthy, and has historically shined on opening night, including a four-goal first career game, and multiple game-winning goals in previous opening matchups versus Montreal.
Matthews scored 3 goals from 12 shots throughout the final two contests versus the Canadiens last season, and I expect last year’s Hart Trophy winner to play a strong game tonight.
This leg could also be played with just Matthews to score and the Leafs to win at +100 on DraftKings as well , which hopefully opens up an options for non-Bet365 users to get involved here.
Auston Matthews Over 4.5 Shots on Goal
Toronto’s top-line of Marner, Matthews, and Bunting should control play at a high-rate tonight, which leads me to believe Matthews will hit his season average of shots on goal from last season of 5.8, especially in most of the world’s where Matthews scores a goal to cover that leg.
This prop is widely available at around +100, and I believe is worthy of a play as a single.
Mitch Marner Over 0.5 Points
Marner and Matthews have proven to have tremendous chemistry on both Toronto’s top 5-on-5 unit, and on the Leafs powerplay unit, which was the most effective in the league last regular season with a 27.3% success rate.
If Matthews scores tonight there’s a high chance Marner is involved, and if Toronto manage the 4+ goal output I feel is likely in this spot, Marner will be highly likely to claim at least one point.
William Nylander Over 0.5 Points/ Over 2.5 Shots
There are two key factors I like as to why I decided to include Nylander, who will not be skating on a line with Matthews and Marner and is therefore less correlated to the rest of the parlay on this spot.
We saw Tuesday night that the NHL’s early-season officiating standards were being enforced, with a total of 20 combined minor penalties between the two contests.
If that standard is enforced, and Toronto control play the way we are expecting, Nylander will have lots of opportunities on the Leafs power play unit, and is one of the best power play players in the world. His point could come from the man advantage.
Toronto’s second line also holds some strong punch at 5-on-5 and should skate in some soft matchups versus a thin and inexperienced team here, which makes me think Nylander will get lots of pucks on goal, something Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe is hoping to see more of this season.
Nylander is priced at -130 to record over 2.5 shots on goal, as well, which is another single which I feel holds value.
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