At last, the World Cup final kicks off on Sunday as Argentina and France square off in Lusail, Qatar. The defending champions, France, will be looking to become the third team after Italy (1934, 1938) and Brazil (1958, 1962) to win the tournament in back-to-back editions. Argentina’s looking to win their first World Cup since 1986 in what could be a storybook ending to Lionel Messi’s international career. Let’s look at the World Cup final odds and give our Argentina-France prediction and best bets.
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World Cup Final Odds: Argentina-France Odds
| Argentina Moneyline/To Win | +170/-115 |
| France Moneyline/To Win | +185/-105 |
| Draw Moneyline | +215 |
| Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals | Over: +130, Under: -165 |
| Location | Lusail Stadium, Lusail, Qatar |
| Time | 10 AM ET |
| TV | FOX/Telemundo |
World Cup Final Trends
Before diving into our Argentina-France prediction, let’s take a quick look at some World Cup final trends. For one, we have waited twenty years now for another South American World Cup champion. Brazil was the last CONMEBOL team to win the World Cup, all the way back in 2002.
Nonetheless, South American teams have fared quite well when making it to the final of the World Cup. In the ten total South American versus European World Cup finals, the Europeans have only won gold three times. It is worth noting that France won their last World Cup final against South American opponents, trouncing Brazil 3-0 in 1998.
As far as the game totals go, the over on 2.5 total goals has only hit in two of the past eight World Cup finals. One of these anomalies was the 2018 final, which featured a four-goal France performance against Croatia. With that being said, we rode against major historical trends in our third-place article, and it came back to bite us.
Kylian Mbappe’s Performance to Define Outcome
As cliché and obvious as it might sound, Kylian Mbappe’s performance against Argentina will define the outcome of this World Cup Final. If Olivier Giroud does in fact miss the match due to an apparent knee injury, Mbappe will be France’s main source of offense. The 23 year-old has contributed to 53.8% of their 13 goals in Qatar, averaging 1.32 goals plus assists per ninety minutes on the field.
Ousmane Dembele has not had a great run of games at the World Cup and Marcus Thuram is a mediocre option at this level. While Antoine Griezmann offers support in the ten hole, the finishing duty is still on the shoulders of Mbappe. Argentina’s not impossible to score against, but their overall xGA at the World Cup is only 2.4 goals in six matches. The chances they concede are few and far in-between and it will take a masterclass from Mbappe to put France ahead.
With that being said, we are witnessing greatness unfold with the PSG forward. He could win back-to-back World Cup by the age of 23, which is simply unprecedented. It is hard not to be confident in a player with his pace, finishing and swagger.
Final Argentina-France Prediction
In terms of how the majority of this match will play out, I see Argentina holding quite a bit of possession. France only held an average of 41% possession in their last two matches between England and Morocco. They left a lot of gaps between the lines and conceded too many offensive chances. It will be interesting to see how Didier Deschamps adjusts to Argentina’s movements early on in this game.
However, his defense will be aided by Ibou Konate, who is slated to start over Dayot Upamecano at center-back. The Liverpool defender was a force in the last match and was paramount to France seeing out their first clean sheet of the tournament.
While Argentina should win the possession battle, I see them having a hard time breaking through. To be fair, Messi can sometimes go missing for Argentina in big finals; his last goal in a final for the Albicelestes was all the way back in 2005. Julian Alvarez is a help, but he will have a hard test against two massive French center-backs.
Overall, I see this being a narrow margin victory for France, with Kylian Mbappe making the difference. Drake has already put his wager on Argentina, so this is always going to be a safe fade. On top of that, I like no on both teams to score; this is a solid World Cup final trend and offers a hedge should the match go in Argentina’s favor.
Final Argentina-France Picks: France to Win World Cup (-120, DraftKings)
No on both teams to score (-115, DraftKings)
Mbappe to score (+185, DraftKings)
