We’ve reached the semi-finals at Wimbledon, and in the end, the final four is made up of four favorites. Jannik Sinner is set to take on Novak Djokovic on one side. On the other side of the bracket, Daniil Medvedev took care of upstart Christopher Eubanks to set-up a semi-final showdown with Carlos Alcaraz. Let’s take a look at the OddsShopper market-based betting model to find the best Carlos Alcaraz-Daniil Medvedev Wimbledon tennis bets for Friday’s match.
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Wimbledon Tennis Bets: Value on Totals in Carlos Alcaraz-Daniil Medvedev Showdown
Carlos Alcaraz-Daniil Medvedev Odds, via BetRivers Sportsbook
Carlos Alcaraz -245 | Daniil Medvedev +195
Total Games, Under 40.5 -113 | Over 40.5 Games -112
Christopher Eubanks gave Daniil Medvedev a run for his money in Wednesday’s Wimbledon quarters, but the favored Medvedev eventually prevailed in five sets. With Eubanks improbable run now over, Medvedev joins three other tennis giants in the tournament’s final four. Medvedev has yet to make a Wimbledon final, but has made the final match of the US Open and Austraillian Open on two occasions. His lone Grand Slam victory came in a finale win over Novak Djokovic at the 2021 U.S. Open.
That 2021 championship was followed up by a Carlos Alcaraz U.S. Open Championship in 2022. The victory was Alcaraz’s first, and only, Grand Slam takedown. It was also Alcaraz’s first and only appearance in a Grand Slam final. He nearly made the final match at the 2023 French Open but ultimately fell in the semi-finals to Novak Djokovic. Now he, and Medvedev will vie for a Wimbledon crown and both could very well go up against Djokovic if they make it.
Wimbledon betting markets are strongly leading toward Alcaraz in this match. He comes in as a -245 favorite to defeat Medvedev. The match’s games total is at 40.5 games. However, the best Carlos Alcaraz-Danill Medvedev tennis bet at the moment is on a derivative market. Wimbledon bettors can grab the Under 38.5 games at +117 on BetRivers. The bet has true odds of +109, giving it a 4% positive expected value. You can wager about 2.3% of your bankroll using the Kelly Criterion staking method for sustainable growth.
OddsShopper uses a market-based betting model that finds the efficient price at the sharpest sportsbook and then identifies which outlets are off from the number. The topdown method consistently produces edges on several markets, including tennis bets for Wimbledon and the entire season. Stay tuned for more best bets and expert analyses applying the model!
Best Alcaraz-Medvedev Wimbledon Tennis Bet: Under 38.5 Games (+117) at BetRivers
