When it comes to profitable sports betting, understanding expected value (EV) is crucial. EV is the cornerstone of any winning betting strategy because it helps determine whether a bet is worth making in the long run. This article will walk you through how to calculate EV in betting, explain the expected value formula and provide real-world examples to solidify your understanding.
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How to Calculate Expected Value in Sports Betting
In simple terms, expected value (EV) represents the average amount a bettor can expect to win (or lose) per bet if they were to place the same bet an infinite number of times.
A positive EV (+EV) bet means you are making a bet that has long-term profitability, while a negative EV (-EV) bet means you are betting on something that will lose money over time. Successful sports bettors focus on making as many +EV bets as possible to ensure profitability over the long run.
The Expected Value Formula in Betting
The formula to calculate EV in sports betting is:
EV = (Probability of Win × Payout) – (Probability of Loss × Amount Bet)
Where:
- Probability of Win = The estimated likelihood of your bet winning
- Payout = The amount you win if your bet is successful
- Probability of Loss = The estimated likelihood of your bet losing
- Amount Bet = The stake you risk on the bet
This formula helps bettors quantify whether a wager has long-term profitability.
Step-by-Step Example of How to Calculate EV in Betting
Calculating EV for an NFL Moneyline Bet
Let’s say you want to bet on an NFL game where the Baltimore Ravens are +150 underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs. This means if you bet $100 and the Ravens win, you receive $150 in profit (plus your original $100 stake).
Assume your analysis suggests the Ravens have a 42% chance of winning, while the implied probability of the sportsbook’s odds is 40% (based on the +150 odds).
Step 1: Convert the Win Probability into Decimal Form
- Probability of Win = 42% = 0.42
- Probability of Loss = 1 – 0.42 = 0.58
Step 2: Use the EV Formula
- EV = (0.42 × 150) – (0.58 × 100)
- EV = (63) – (58)
- EV = +5
Since the expected value is +5, this means you are expected to profit $5 per $100 bet in the long run. This is a +EV bet, and placing these types of bets consistently should yield a profit over time.
Calculating EV for an NBA Point Spread Bet
Imagine an NBA game where the Lakers are -110 to cover a -3.5 spread against the Celtics. At -110 odds, a $110 bet returns a $100 profit if it wins.
Let’s assume your research indicates the Lakers have a 53% chance of covering the spread.
Step 1: Convert the Win Probability into Decimal Form
- Probability of Win = 53% = 0.53
- Probability of Loss = 1 – 0.53 = 0.47
Step 2: Use the EV Formula
- EV = (0.53 × 100) – (0.47 × 110)
- EV = (53) – (51.7)
- EV = +1.3
This bet has a small +EV of $1.30 per $110 bet, meaning it is slightly profitable in the long term. While this is a marginal edge, consistent +EV bets add up over time.
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Using Portfolio EV to Improve Your Sports Betting Strategy
One of the biggest lessons from Portfolio EV is that you should not judge bets individually but rather consider the entire portfolio of bets you place. Instead of relying on a single +EV bet, professional bettors diversify their bets across different markets and sports to minimize variance while maximizing long-term profitability.
For example, if you consistently find +EV bets across different bet types, you reduce the risk of short-term variance wiping out your bankroll.
Why Expected Value Matters in Sports Betting
- Separates Smart Betting from Gambling – Understanding EV allows you to distinguish profitable bets from ones that are purely speculative.
- Improves Long-Term Profitability – Focusing on +EV bets ensures that, over time, your winning bets outweigh your losing ones.
- Helps Identify Market Inefficiencies – Finding discrepancies between sportsbook odds and actual probabilities helps you gain an edge.
Common Mistakes When Calculating EV
- Ignoring Sample Size – Short-term results can be misleading. Stick to +EV bets consistently rather than reacting emotionally to wins and losses.
- Overestimating Win Probability – Be realistic when estimating probabilities, as overconfidence can lead to betting on -EV wagers.
- Failing to Shop for the Best Odds – Always compare odds across multiple sportsbooks to ensure you’re maximizing EV on each bet.
Final Thoughts
Calculating expected value is one of the most powerful skills a sports bettor can develop. By consistently identifying +EV bets using the formula outlined in this guide, bettors can shift the odds in their favor over the long run. Whether you are betting on NFL, NBA or other sports, focusing on expected value rather than short-term results is the key to becoming a profitable sports bettor.
For those looking to make +EV betting even easier, consider using a sports betting EV calculator or Portfolio EV to quickly find profitable wagers.
