It is Thursday, Aug. 25, and MLB fans have nine games to follow today. With Aaron Nola, Jacob deGrom, Lance Lynn, and Kevin Gausman on the mound, there should be some strikeout props to be had. If there is a game you are excited about, BetMGM is offering a RISK-FREE BET up to $1,000.
This article will have the best picks according to Stokastic models to give you the best chance to win, and OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks today.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Aaron Nola O/U 7.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Aaron Nola has a 28.2% strikeout rate and averages 1.10 strikeouts per inning. He is pitching to Cincinnati — a team that has a 24.1% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching — and he is coming off a stretch of two consecutive starts of going over this total, with eight strikeouts and nine strikeouts. Nola will have a stretch run of a couple of games with higher-than-average strikeouts, followed by ones with fewer strikeouts than average. While his most recent starts look impressive, he is more likely to stay under than go over tonight.
Best MLB Pick Today: Aaron Nola UNDER 7.5 Strikeouts (-110)
Lance Lynn O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Lance Lynn is pitching in Camden Yards against the Baltimore Orioles tonight. Lynn averages 1.05 strikeouts per inning, while Baltimore is tied for 16th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Lynn has been up-and-down this season when it comes to allowing runs, but his strikeouts have been more consistent. This bet is about whether Lynn can make it six innings or not. He has gone six innings in four of his last six starts. In the other two starts, he went 5.2 innings but could not quite finish the deal. If he goes six innings, there is a good chance he will have six strikeouts.
Best MLB Pick Today: Lance Lynn OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+108)
Jordan Lyles O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Jordan Lyles is on the other side of the mound from Lynn tonight in Baltimore. He averages 0.86 strikeouts per inning, and while the White Sox have been a very disappointing offense this season, they have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Lyles has allowed runs (4.61 ERA, 4.45 xFIP), but he has gone over this strikeout total in 18 of 25 starts this season. In his one previous start to the White Sox, he struck out four in seven innings. On average it would take 4.2 innings for Lyles to reach four strikeouts. He also has 14 strikeouts in his last 8.1 innings.
Best MLB Pick Today: Jordan Lyles OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-146)
James Kaprielian O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
James Kaprielian will take his 16.4% strikeout rate and face the New York Yankees in Oakland tonight. Averaging just 0.71 strikeouts per inning, the question is, why is his prop set so high at 4.5 strikeouts? It would take him 5.2 innings on average to reach five strikeouts, but he also has a 5.25 xFIP and is facing arguably the best offense in baseball. He has gone over this prop in five starts, but two of those starts were in his last three. Take advantage of the recency and go under here.
Best MLB Pick Today: James Kaprielian UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-138)
Aaron Judge O/U 0.5 Home Runs | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Aaron Judge is getting hot at the plate again, with a home run in each of his past two games. Now he faces a pitcher in Kaprielian that is allowing 1.34 HR/9, and one has to think Judge has a great chance at going yard yet again, even if it is in Oakland. With a .366 ISO and 48 home runs in 529 plate appearances, Judge is having a great season and is always a bet to consider when going against bad pitchers.
Best MLB Pick Today: Aaron Judge OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+285)
Yordan Alvarez O/U 1.5 Total Bases | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Yordan Alvarez and the Houston Astros will face Chris Archer and the Minnesota Twins tonight. This is a great spot for the Astros, as Archer has a 4.54 xFIP and his strikeout rate is the lowest it has been in nine years. With a .311 ISO and a .401 OBP, there is a good chance Alvarez gets an extra-base hit tonight against a weak pitcher in Archer.
Best MLB Pick Today: Yordan Alvarez OVER 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
