We Did It Again — Yesterday’s +430 home run prop smashed, and we’re back today with an even juicier one: A +500 home run bet that could light up your bankroll. If you’re looking for the best MLB prop bets today, including top value on home run props, you’re in the right place. Check out the full video below and ride the momentum with three sharp MLB picks — all powered by the red-hot Portfolio EV tools.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Home Run Props & More
Here’s a quick recap of the featured props:
- Michael Toglia – Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Shota Imanaga – Under 4.5 Strikeouts
- Seiya Suzuki – To Hit a Home Run (+500)
We use data-driven projections to find market inefficiencies before the lines move. Whether you’re chasing mlb home run prop bets today or looking for the mlb best prop bets today across a variety of markets, it all comes down to expected value. These aren’t just gut picks — they’re smart plays built from predictive models and matchup analysis.
What Is +EV? Understanding Positive Expected Value in Sports Betting
A +EV (positive expected value) bet means the odds are in your favor — the chance of winning is higher than what the sportsbook’s line suggests. If your bet wins more often than the breakeven percentage, it’s profitable long-term. If it doesn’t, it becomes a –EV bet — and that’s how bettors bleed money over time.
Example: Say the Bears are +3.5 underdogs at home against the Packers, priced at –110. That line implies a breakeven rate of about 52.4%. If you believe the Bears cover more than 52.4% of the time, you’ve found a +EV edge — a smart, numbers-backed bet.
