Happy Friday everyone! Our Prop Party parlay features up to FIVE Player Prop bets that’ll give you the best chance to win based on our Stokastic simulations. Don’t feel obligated to put all five in your parlay if one prop feels too risky. The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community and Alex “Awesemo” Baker — the world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player — uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/9
Brayan Bello O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
After getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays, the Boston Red Sox will stay on the road and travel to their other division rival, the Baltimore Orioles. Rookie Brayan Bello will draw the start for the seventh time all season as he has also appeared in two non-starts. Through the eight appearances, Bello has yet to allow a home run but still holds a 1-4 record. His strikeout rate of 19.3% is quite low compared to his minor league numbers that were well into the 30% range in the past two years. Even with the low strikeout rate, Bello has accumulated five and seven strikeouts in two of his last three starts. The Orioles rank above average in strikeout rate and Stokastic projects Bello to record five strikeouts in this spot tonight. This over prop has the highest xWin rate in the Prop Party parlay at 71%, which is providing a confident start to the night.
Best MLB Pick Today: Brayan Bello OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-133)
Lance McCullers Jr. O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Houston Astros continue to roll through the American League as they have a comfortable lead on capturing the No. 1 overall seed for the postseason. Getting Lance McCullers Jr. back in the rotation only can help their future pitching staff. McCullers will draw a matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who he just faced in his last start. Typically that gives the advantage to the hitters, even though the Angels have the highest strikeout rate in the league. Diving into McCullers swing and miss statistics was very interesting. Not only has he posted a career-low 21.3% strikeout rate during his first four starts, but opponents are swinging less at his pitches outside the strike zone and are hitting the most pitches thrown inside the strike zone in his career. Strikeouts have been tough to come by for McCullers in his return from injury and Stokastic projects only 5.4 strikeouts in this matchup against the Angels tonight.
Best MLB Pick Today: Lance McCullers Jr. UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-128)
Dane Dunning O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Outside of the veteran Martin Perez, who is having a career year, Dane Dunning is the second-best pitcher on this Texas Rangers staff. That probably isn’t saying much, but Dunning in his second year with the Rangers has allowed a respectable 1.04 HR/9 and a 4.39 ERA. Despite having a 19.6% strikeout rate this season, Dunning has reached four or more strikeouts in 20 of his 26 starts, which is good for a 76.9% hit rate on this over prop. He has reached the over in seven of his last eight games. Stokastic projects Dunning for 4.4 strikeouts in this home matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays. In his lone matchup against the Blue Jays in his first start of the season, Dunning got to four strikeouts in only 74 total pitches. Dunning’s pitch count has certainly increased and even if the Blue Jays tag him for a few runs, getting to four or more strikeouts has been easy for him lately. This over strikeout prop for Dunning isn’t as strong as Bello’s, but the odds are the exact same.
Best MLB Pick Today: Dane Dunning OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-133)
Dylan Bundy O/U 2.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians are in a great race for the AL Central division. They play a three-game series starting tonight and follow that up with a five-game series starting next Friday. It is a huge stretch of games as the Twins will trot out Dylan Bundy for Game 1 tonight. The Guardians have the lowest strikeout rate in the league, but this prop line truly makes no sense, and the value on the over is tremendous. In his first season with the Twins, Bundy has a winning record for just the second time in the last five years. Probably the most concerning part about this over is the pitch count. The Twins pull Bundy the most out of any pitcher very sporadically. He has thrown 71 or fewer pitches in five of his last six games but still hit the over on this 2.5 strikeout prop line in three of those starts. Stokastic projects Bundy for 3.1 strikeouts against the pesky Guardians. A tough spot, but an extremely low prop line with an xWin rate on this over at 57% paired with a +130 value.
Best MLB Pick Today: Dylan Bundy OVER 2.5 Strikeouts (+130)
Miles Mikolas O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The last strikeout player prop in this Prop Party parlay features St. Louis Cardinals right-hander Miles Mikolas. The veteran 34-year-old has never been a strikeout pitcher. He has an 18.2% strikeout rate this season and has never had a strikeout rate above 18.8% in his entire career. Mikolas still leads the Cardinals in wins, ERA and innings pitched, so a quality start against the Pittsburgh Pirates will be expected. Even with a strong outing against a very poor team, having Mikolas reach five or more strikeouts seems unlikely. Since July, Mikolas has only recorded five or more strikeouts in three of his 13 starts. His goal is to force soft contact, not strike out batters. The Pirates may strike themselves out at times, but this is still a lofty prop line for a non-strikeout pitcher. Stokastic projects Mikolas for only 4.4 strikeouts rounding out our Prop Party parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Miles Mikolas UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
