The Billy Napier Era got off to a great start in Florida. The Gators knocked off a top-10 team in the Swamp last weekend as 2.5-point underdogs. Although it was a close win — the Gators needed a game-sealing, end-zone interception to keep the Utah Utes from coming back — it was a win nonetheless. The Gators are now nearly touchdown favorites over the Kentucky Wildcats on college football betting markets, and our expert predictions suggest that they’ll win.
That said, Kentucky is trending in the right direction under head coach Mark Stoops. The Wildcats have gone to six bowl games in a row and have won four of them. The Wildcats even finished as a ranked team in both 2018 and 2021, and took down division-rival Florida in both of those seasons. Kentucky is no longer just a basketball school, but the Wildcats will still have their work cut out for them against Florida.
Kentucky vs. Florida Week 2 College Football Betting Picks & Predictions
Kentucky vs. Florida Betting Odds
Can Kentucky's Offense Overcome Absences and Departures?
The Kentucky Wildcats won their matchup against the Florida Gators last season, but they aren't favored to repeat. Gone is leading receiver Wan'Dale Robinson. Chris Rodriguez, last year's leading rusher, is "unavailable to play" as the result of an offseason DUI. Rodriguez accounted for 99 of Kentucky's yards against Florida last year -- just over 44% -- and half their touchdowns.
Quarterback Will Levis is back for the Wildcats. However, Levis completed a dismal 41% of his passes for only 87 yards against the Gators last year. Of his seven completions, four went to the since-departed Robinson. Fortunately, Levis' new receivers looked good in Week 1. Virginia Tech transfer Tayvion Robinson and true freshman Dane Key caught 10 passes for 189 yards and a score. Still, Levis ranked only 47th in passing efficiency last year, and he doesn't add much with his legs.
Kentucky's running game looked terrible in Week 1. With Rodriguez sidelined, the Wildcats gained just 50 yards on the ground on 1.9 yards per attempt. Backup Kavosiey Smoke totaled just 32 yards on seven carries. Kentucky got away with imbalanced offensive play against the Miami RedHawks in Week 1, but that likely won't work against an SEC opponent. Similar offensive struggles could prove catastrophic due to Kentucky's roster turnover on defense -- run stuffers Josh Paschal and Marquan McCall both left for the NFL.
Napier and Richardson Looked Great Week 1
The Gators are trending up. An upset home win over the then-No. 7 Utah Utes shot Florida up to No. 12 in the AP Poll. Quarterback Anthony Richardson looked fantastic, only further confounding fans who saw him play second-fiddle to Emory Jones last year. He completed 71% of his passes for 168 yards and added 106 yards on the ground, including a 45-yard rushing score. Richardson found the end zone two more times as well.
Richardson led the way for the Gators on the ground, but Florida's running backs also looked great. Montrell Johnson Jr. ran 12 times for 75 yards and a score. Nay'Quan Wright ran 10 times for another 39 yards. And true freshman Trevor Etienne racked up 64 yards on just five carries. Utah ranked 21st against the run and in overall defensive efficiency last year, so those numbers didn't just come against a run-funnel unit.
The Gators also boast a rock-solid offensive one. Three starters on the left side, including center Kingsley Eguakun, returned from last year's team. Joining them are Lousiana transfer O'Cyrus Torrence at right guard and new starter Michael Tarquin at right tackle. Florida's offensive line already ranked an impressive 31st in average line yards last year. Torrence helped Billy Napier's offensive line at Louisiana rank 41st in the metric, so the unit should be even stronger moving forward.
Kentucky vs. Florida Prediction
This matchup comes down to how much success Florida can find on the ground. Kentucky allowed a 22-yard rushing touchdown on the opening drive of last week's game against the Miami RedHawks. Their defensive line, which turned over a number of key pieces in the offseason, looked overmatched against a MAC offensive line -- at least for this play. If Florida's running backs can find similar success behind the team's stacked offensive line, the Gators will run away with Saturday's matchup.
Even if Kentucky's defensive line plays well, their offense may struggle to keep up with Richardson and company. Losing both Chris Rodriguez and Wan'Dale Robinson -- their top two playmakers from last year's win -- will hurt significantly. The Gators are rightfully favored by six points, and with roughly 75% of the cash coming in on them, this number could tick over the key number of seven before kickoff.
Best NCAAF Bet: Florida -5.5 (-114) at FanDuel
