With a big UFC 297 day ahead, let’s get to our Arnold Allen-Movsar Evloev pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and or our betting model’s top picks
Arnold Allen-Movsar Evloev Pick, Odds and Preview
Arnold Allen-Movsar Evloev Odds
UFC 297 Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Evloev: -205 | Allen: +150
Evloev -3.5: +110 | Allen +3.5: -145
Over 2.5: -360 | Under 2.5: +260
Arnold Allen-Movsar Evloev Pick & Preview
The first bout of the main card between Arnold Allen (19-2) and Movsar Evloev (17-0) shows just how deep UFC 297 runs.
Allen, coming off a loss against one of the division’s greatest fighters, Max Holloway, was a fight or two from a title shot. His counterpart, Evloev, is one of the most highly touted prospects in the sport and can launch himself into the division’s upper echelons with a win.
While this fight marks a decided step up in competition for Evloev, the sportsbooks are favoring him by a comfortable margin. Allen’s well-rounded game and experience in high-level moments may provide bettors willing to buy longer odds with an edge if they ride with him to win by decision. It’s hard to picture Allen as an underdog to many in the division. With solid striking, well-timed counters and takedown defense, there won’t be many holes for Evloev to exploit.
However, neither Allen nor Evloev are known for finishing fights quickly. In their combined eighteen UFC fights, they have gone to the cards fourteen times for a rate of 77.8%.
The books anticipate a decision as the most likely outcome, pegging the line at -330 for an implied probability of around 76%.
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Allen has won six of his eleven fights by decision with only one loss. Evloev has been an even more prolific decision fighter with all seven of his UFC fights ending in a decision victory, most of which have come in crushing fashion.
I’m surprised that a fighter of Evloev’s caliber hasn’t found a finish in the UFC, particularly when accounting for his rates. He lands 4.79 significant strikes per minute and a stunning 4.71 takedowns per 15 minutes. A lack of aggression isn’t the reason for Evloev’s inability to finish lesser opponents, which is a concern as he takes a step up in competition.
Evloev’s heavy pressure, particularly takedowns, appears to be the blueprint for beating Allen. In Allen’s fight against Mads Burnell, Allen was controlled for much of the fight. The bout seemed headed for a decision win in Burnell’s favor until Allen secured a guillotine and the victory. This came immediately after a split decision in which Allen gave up 5:38 of control time, though it should be noted he defended eight of twelve takedown attempts and won 30-27 on two of the judges’ scorecards.
To say Allen is a different fighter than those early efforts is an understatement. In his fight with Nik Lentz, another high-output wrestler, Allen stuffed all nine takedown attempts. Since then, nobody has gotten the better of Allen except Holloway.
Evloev’s heavy pressure on the feet mitigated much of the damage he could have taken while in the octagon. He only absorbed 2.74 significant strikes per minute, defending 61% of the time. His striking defense will be tested against a much more prolific Allen, but he is still not a likely candidate for Allen’s third knockout in the UFC.
Betting on Allen to win by decision is essentially a parlay of his money line (+150) and the method of victory being a decision (-330). The odds put together as a simple parlay come out to +226, giving us an edge on the +330 at DraftKings.
Best Arnold Allen-Movsar Evloev Pick: Allen by Decision +330 at DraftKings
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