UFC 300 is here, and it’s time for us to get some bets on for the evening’s stacked card. Let’s get into our Sodiq Yusuff-Diego Lopes pick, odds and preview as we break down one spot bettors should plan to exploit. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including our full-card breakdown, and our betting model’s top picks.
Sodiq Yusuff-Diego Lopes Pick, Odds and Preview
Yusuff-Lopes Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Featherweight
Yusuff: +115 | Lopes: -145
Yusuff +3.5: -120 | Lopes -3.5: -110
Over 2.5: +140 | Under 2.5: -180
Yusuff-Lopes Pick & Preview
After a strong early prelim card, the prelims begin with a fight between two solid up-and-comers. Sodiq Yusuff (13-3) will look to bounce back from a disappointing loss with a matchup against highly a touted prospect, Diego Lopes (23-6).
Lopes’ Jiu Jitsu is nothing to mess around with, but he has too many questions on the feet for me to ride with him in this one, particularly as Yusuff is not an aggressive grappler.
With all the hype in the world, Lopes started his run in the Octagon with two disappointing losses, the first against Joanderson Brito on the Contender Series, and the second against Movsar Evloev in his UFC debut. He can be forgiven for losing both fights, as his opponents are both very strong fighters, but his next two performances did little to answer the question marks about his game.
It may seem perplexing that a young fighter could get two first-round finishes and we’re still questioning his talent, but how he got these wins concerns me. Both wins came from his opponents diving in on a double-leg.
The first, by Gavin Tucker, was particularly ill-advised, as he essentially dove straight into a triangle choke/armbar and was finished promptly after. The next fight saw Pat Sabatini shoot a double leg, and in the scramble to the feet, he took a shot to the head because his hands were down, and the fight ended promptly after.
Granted, a win is a win, but these wins came more from Lopes’ opponents’ mistakes rather than his own ability. The fact still remains that Lopes hasn’t taken his opponents down in four bouts and has yet to win definitively in an exchange on the feet. He was also controlled for over seven minutes on the ground in his two losses.
OddsShopper’s betting model reveals a pricing disparity in the odds for Saturday’s Yusuff-Lopes bout: SuperBook has the under 2.5 at odds of just -145, below the true odds of -154 and far below the odds at Pinnacle, a sharp book, making a wager on the under a +EV Bet. For the rest of our model’s projections — for more than just the UFC — subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for $49.95!
The biggest problem is that I don’t see a path to victory for Lopes if his opponents don’t dive in on a takedown to allow him to pull guard and work his jiu-jitsu. His striking numbers are beyond atrocious. He only lands 2.47 significant strikes per minute compared to the 4.91 significant strikes per minute that he absorbs.
Yusuff will have every opportunity to piece him up on the feet. He lands 5.72 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 4.33. Importantly, he only lands 0.28 takedowns per 15 minutes. Yusuff would be best served by not attempting a single takedown in this one. Without giving Lopes the opportunity to pull guard, he will force Lopes to prove himself on the feet or gain a takedown himself. These are both things I don’t believe he’s capable of doing at the moment.
If this one doesn’t find its way to the ground, it could get ugly quicky, to the point where I think a doctor’s stoppage is in play. I don’t wish anything negative to come to Lopes, as it’s always nice to have a solid prospect in the mix, but I’m highly skeptical of his striking coming into this one.
Best UFC Yusuff-Lopes Bet & Pick: Yusuff ML +115 at DraftKings
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