The 2022-23 NBA season is just days away, so bettors looking to make futures bets before it starts have a narrow window to get their action down. Chet Holmgren‘s foot injury already upended the Rookie of the Year race before it began, as the No. 2 pick will miss the entire season. With time running out to exploit the NBA Rookie of the Year odds, here are the top ROY predictions.
2022-23 NBA Rookie of the Year Betting Odds & Predictions
2022-23 NBA Rookie of the Year Odds
Paolo Banchero | +200 at DraftKings
Banchero's odds dropped from around 5-2 to 2-1 after the injury to Holmgren. They have stayed pat ever since despite two subsequent developments. First, Banchero lost teammate Jalen Suggs to a scary knee injury. Fortunately for the Orlando Magic, Suggs will be able to return after a multiweek absence and is not lost for the season. That should will allow Banchero to stuff the stat sheet early, increasing his total production. Second, the preseason is underway, and Houston Rockets rookie Jabari Smith looks to have turned a corner from his underwhelming Summer League, although he also suffered an ankle injury in the process.
NBA ROY bettors should target total production in each counting-statistical category. The award typically goes to the rookie with the best total counting stats, not the best averages. Last year, Scottie Barnes won the award over Cade Cunningham despite averaging fewer points per game, but Barnes scored more total points and significantly outrebounded Cunningham. The two finished with per-game splits of 15.3-7.5-3.5 and 17.4-5.5-5.6, respectively. Two years before, Ja Morant led in both totals and per-game averages, and Luka Doncic did the same a year prior. Notably, LaMelo Ball bested Anthony Edwards for the award in 2020-21 despite lower totals because he owned better per-game averages in rebounds, assists and steals.
Banchero (6-foot-10) should have an advantage in scoring and rebounding, especially on a team without an alternative lead option. He should handily lead his class in those metrics, but betting on any award winner at odds of 2-1 or shorter isn't always sharp because of additional risks like injuries and load management. But until Banchero's odds move below 2-1, he remains a sharp bet for the award.
Jabari Smith | +600 at DraftKings
Smith has most of the same physical advantages that Banchero does. The only question around was whether he'd be ready for the NBA as a rookie. Smith is months younger than Banchero and is a less complete all-around player. That said, there are compelling reasons to target Smith on the Rookie of the Year betting markets with a price of 6-1.
For one, Smith and Banchero will face about the same competition for shots, unlike Keegan Murray and Jaden Ivey. Ivey must compete against last year's No.1 pick, Cunningham, while Murray must compete with De'Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis and Harrison Barnes. In contrast, the Rockets and Magic have big-name second-year guards in Jalen Green and Suggs but not much else. They each have third- or fourth-year guards in Cole Anthony and Kevin Porter Jr. who usually operate as primary ball-handlers but have yet to average more than 6.5 assists per game. However, the Magic have some talented big shooters in Franz Wagner, Moritz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. that the Rockets lack. Instead, Houston has a small-ball roster loaded with young guards.
Second, there is an independent reason to target Smith: rebounds. Smith pulled down eight boards in his lone preseason game playing more than 24 minutes. In contrast, Banchero has yet to grab more than five boards. Banchero's bigger teammates -- Carter, Mo Bamba and Bol Bol -- could limit Banchero's raw rebounding numbers. Though Banchero may have a slight advantage as a passer -- he averaged 3.2 assists per game in college to Smith's 2.0 -- a big enough disparity on the glass could significantly help Smith's case against Banchero. Buying him at 6-1 before the season starts feels sharp because he is likely to stuff the stat sheets early and drop this number below 5-1.
