In one of only three games in today’s NBA slate, the Cavaliers host the Lakers in a matchup between the league’s slowest and fastest teams, respectively. Jarrett Allen (back) is questionable for the Cavaliers after missing each of the team’s last five games (he did participate in today’s shootaround though), while both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are probable for the Lakers. Cleveland is favored by 5 points, and the game’s total is at 225.5, the highest on the night. Be sure to check out the OddsShopper tool for more best NBA player props and best bets.
Davis has been on a tear lately, propelling the Lakers to seven wins in his last 10 games. Despite their recent run, the Lakers remain a team to target. They play at the league’s fastest pace (103.24) and allow the second-most rebounds (46.6), ninth-most assists (26.1) and 10th-most points (115.1) per game. On the other hand, Cleveland plays at the league’s slowest pace (96.35) and limits its opponents to the fewest points (105) and rebounds (39.9) and fifth-fewest assists (22.8) per game. Considering each team’s stats, focusing on Cleveland’s players to have productive performances makes more sense than not, two such players are Darius Garland and Evan Mobley.
Best NBA Player Props | December 6
Darius Garland Prop: O/U 2.5 3-Pointers
Garland averages roughly seven 3-point attempts and 2.8 made 3’s per game this season, shooting 40.8% from downtown. He had three or more 3’s in nine out of 18 games this season (though only twice in the last five games), including against the Lakers on Nov. 6. While Garland is shooting a bit over his head (has a career average of 38.1%), this is a good matchup for him to continue doing so.
While the Lakers limit opponents to only 33.9% 3-point shooting and 11.9 made 3’s per game (fifth lowest and 12th fewest, respectively), opposing point guards are finding success from beyond the arc against them. The Lakers allow roughly three 3-pointers per game to opposing point guards, 10th most in the league. For context, Tyrese Haliburton (three), Jrue Holiday (six) and Monte Morris (two) all went over their 3-pointers props facing the Lakers recently.
Garland made over 2.5 3’s in half of his games this year, so getting plus money for him to do so again in a favorable matchup has value. Make sure to shop around if tailing the pick, as the odds for the over on Garland’s 3-pointers prop are juiced to around -115 on some books.
Best NBA Player Prop: Darius Garland OVER 2.5 3-Pointers (+100 BetMGM)
Evan Mobley Prop: O/U 2.5 Steals + Blocks
In addition to points, rebounds and assists, the Lakers also allow their opponents an abundance of blocks and steals — opposing teams record the sixth-most blocks (5.6) and seventh-most steals per game against the Lakers. So whether Allen plays or not, Evan Mobley is in a great spot to go over his combined steals and blocks prop. Furthermore, Los Angeles allows the second-most steals (1.86) and seventh-most blocks (1.36) to opposing power forwards and seventh-most steals (1.45) and eighth-most blocks (2.26) to opposing centers. Mobley has a favorable matchup whether he plays as a power forward or center.
Mobley averages 1.5 blocks (10th most in the league) and 0.9 steals per game, recording three or more combined steals and blocks in 11 out of 24 games this season (including in three of the last five playing without Allen). The implied odds for Mobley going over 2.5 “stocks” in tonight’s game are 43.48%, whereas Mobley went over that line in 45.8% of his games this year. Given the favorable matchup, Allen’s potential absence and Mobley’s hit rate, the odds for him going over 2.5 combined steals and blocks in tonight’s game are too good to pass. Nonetheless, considering the plus money return and that these are somewhat volatile stats, betting less than a unit is advisable.
Best NBA Player Prop: Evan Mobley OVER 2.5 Steals + Blocks (+130 At DraftKings, 0.5-0.75 units)
