On a small, three-game NBA slate, LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers will face off against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight in Ohio. The Cavaliers are slight favorites and will look to improve to an impressive 11-1 at home. Bettors looking for a positive return on tonight’s matchup should tail these Lakers-Cavaliers prediction and picks.
NBA Odds: Lakers-Cavaliers Odds
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LA Relying on Interior Scoring
The 10-12 Los Angeles Lakers have gotten off to a rocky start. Although big man Anthony Davis has entered the MVP race, the Lakers sit at a concerning 10-12 and rank a lowly 13th in the Western Conference. That said, they have played slightly better than their record suggests — the Lakers rank 16th in net rating (-0.3), largely because they rank 11th in defensive rating (111).
Poor play from beyond the arc has cost Los Angeles this year. The Lakers rank a lowly 29th in made 3’s per game (9.9) and 26th in 3-point shooting percentage (30%). Their struggles have come as no surprise to most — the team lacks a consistent deep threat. This has had two effects: first, the Lakers lead the NBA in points in the paint per game (57.4).
Second, LA’s lack of a true shooter has led players like LeBron James to get more aggressive from beyond the arc. James has averaged 7.9 attempts from long range over the last two seasons, well above his career average of 4.6.
Although the Lakers have found success on defense, they have begun to regress recently. Their regression has been especially flagrant with regard to assisted shots. The Lakers have allowed the 22nd most assists per game this year (26.1) and the second-most to point guards (9.6). Opposing point guards have racked up 10.5 assists per contest in LA’s last three contests as well.
Cleveland Might Get Allen Back
Few teams have improved more this season than the Cleveland Cavaliers. At 15-9, Cleveland ranks an impressive third in the Eastern Conference. Trading for Donovan Mitchell has given the depth they lacked at guard last season, and the Cavs now rank an impressive fourth in net rating (+6.3) behind the NBA’s second-best defense (106.7).
The Cavs have succeeded by playing smart, deliberate basketball. They rank 30th in pace, which means they lead in few per-game or total metrics. However, they rank an impressive fifth in team rebound rate (51.4%) and in offensive rebound rate allowed (26.2%), leading them to surrender the fewest second-chance points. Cleveland also ranks second in points in the paint allowed per game (45.8).
Center Jarrett Allen deserves plenty of credit for Cleveland’s defensive success, but he is questionable for Tuesday’s game with a back injury that has kept him sidelined since late November. Cleveland has regressed slightly without him. The Cavs rank just eighth in points in the paint allowed per game (49.2) and sixth in second-chance points allowed per game (11.2) over their last five contests, all of which they played without Allen.
Final Lakers-Cavaliers Prediction & Pick
The Cavaliers are designed to beat teams that rely on interior scoring. Even if Allen sits, big men like Evan Mobley and Kevin Love are positive defenders, especially on the interior. Cleveland took down LA by a 14-point margin back in November on the road, and a similar performance is likely in store tonight, especially with the Lakers playing on the front end of a back-to-back.
Bettors should back the Cavs because of their wild home-road splits. The Cavs are an impressive 9-1-1 against the spread at home. The Cavaliers play 11.8 points more efficiently at home than when they play on the road. While some of that is likely noise, bettors shouldn’t shy away from a trend with a 90%-win rate.
Further, given LA’s recent struggles against point guards, backing Darius Garland here feels sharp. Garland has averaged 23.5 points and 8.4 assists per game at home, well above his season averages of 22.2 and 7.7. He racked up 24 points and seven assists in Cleveland’s road game against LA, so bettors should expect a similarly strong performance from him tonight.
Final Lakers-Cavaliers Pick: Cavaliers -5 (-110 for 1.1 Units) at DraftKings
Darius Garland 25+ Points (+125 for 0.5 Unit) at FanDuel
Daris Garland Double-Double/Cleveland to Win (+230 for 0.5 Unit) at FanDuel
